Iran is currently facing significant challenges from weakened regional allies, the fall of Assad’s regime, and threats from a potential Trump presidency. Despite perceptions of vulnerability, Tehran remains resolute, implementing limited reforms to stabilize domestic support while preparing for external pressures. The Islamic Republic aims to manage public dissent and prevent unrest as it navigates complex negotiations regarding its nuclear program and foreign relations. The regime maintains its core strategies amid a delicate balance of internal stability and external resistance.
Iran is currently facing significant challenges, having experienced setbacks including the weakening of regional allies Hamas and Hezbollah and the unexpected collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria. The potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency raises fears of renewed maximum pressure policies, exacerbating the Iranian economy’s struggles. This situation prompts U.S. analysts to conclude that Iran is at a notable strategic disadvantage, as asserted by Richard Haass in Foreign Affairs, who notes the Islamic Republic’s unprecedented vulnerability.
Despite the prevailing view that Iran is more susceptible to external pressures, Tehran interprets these challenges as short-term difficulties rather than definitive defeats. The Iranian leadership believes that, although severely affected, Hamas and Hezbollah have demonstrated resilience by maintaining their identities as guerrilla forces against Israel’s military power. Additionally, groups like the Houthis in Yemen have strengthened their position by supporting Palestine, emphasizing their involvement in Tehran’s resistance network.
Recognizing the reduced strength of its alliances after key events, Iran has begun to implement limited reforms to temper domestic dissent and regain public trust. These measures include relaxing the enforcement of mandatory dress codes for women and allowing more critical discourse on social media about governance. Iran aims to rally domestic support as a bulwark against foreign attacks and to withstand any adversarial posture from the U.S. under a potentially aggressive Trump administration.
While Israel may perceive military victories over its adversaries as strategic gains, Iran holds an outlook that anticipates the eventual resurgence of these groups due to their sustained grassroots support. Conversely, the regime is deeply unsettled by the rapid disintegration of Assad’s governance, which underscores vulnerabilities within Iran’s own domestic structure. This has prompted notable acknowledgment from Iranian officials about the need to address public disenchantment.
In December 2023, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council effectively paused the introduction of a contentious veiling law, responding to growing unpopularity. This temporary hiatus reflects an awareness that strict enforcement could spark unrest akin to previous protests ignited by the death of Mahsa Amini. Such adjustments indicate Tehran’s willingness to reconsider its rigid policies while avoiding escalation into broader political dissent.
Through cautiously allowing more open dialogue within state-controlled media, Iran hopes to dissipate public frustration and divert attention away from critical international perspectives viewed as hostile. The regime is banking on fostering a landscape where moderate dissent does not translate into destabilizing protests, thus protecting its legitimacy and control.
Leaders within Iran view the pursuit of national unity as crucial, especially when negotiating with the United States regarding nuclear issues. The Biden administration’s strategy aims to capitalize on the vulnerabilities caused by past sanctions, encouraging Iran to adopt a more conciliatory stance. However, backed by enhanced internal cohesion, Iran is prepared to negotiate from a position of strength, resisting any attempts to force concessions while remaining firm on its nuclear ambitions.
Tehran’s primary focus is to unify the public ahead of potential confrontations with the U.S., learning from the fate of Assad. Limited social openings serve as a strategy to mitigate unrest before it escalates, enabling Iran to frame upcoming conflicts not as a fight for regime continuity but as legitimate resistance against external harassment. Despite this, the core defiance of the regime remains intact, and Iran is unlikely to abandon its longstanding confrontational posture.
Iran is strategically maneuvering through a series of internal and external challenges, focusing on domestic reforms to bolster public support and stabilize its regime. The regime’s recognition of the need to prevent civil unrest is reflected in adjustments to its policies, particularly regarding issues like women’s dress codes and public discourse. As Iran faces renewed pressure from potential U.S. policies under a Trump presidency, it seeks to unify its public to counteract the perceived threats and maintain its foundational objectives without compromising its core strategies.
Original Source: www.foreignaffairs.com
