Tensions in Tigray escalate as factions vie for power, risking a renewed Ethiopia-Eritrea war. The Pretoria Agreement’s effectiveness is compromised, with potential regional consequences. Diplomatic intervention from Gulf states and the African Union is crucial to prevent conflict and instability in the Red Sea region.
The cessation of hostilities agreement between the Ethiopian government and the Tigrayan opposition in late 2022 marked the end of a devastating conflict that claimed over 600,000 lives. This war showcased modern combat capabilities with large mechanized units and advanced aerial warfare reminiscent of historic battles. The accord, known as the Pretoria Agreement, led to the establishment of an interim administration in Tigray, which is now facing critical challenges as its anniversary approaches in March.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which played a significant role in Ethiopia’s political landscape until 2018, faces internal divisions. Diverging factions within Tigray, led by TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael and the interim administration’s president Getachew Reda, are vying for dominance. Recently, internal conflicts have escalated within the Tigrayan Defense Forces (TDF), raising concerns about a possible coup against the interim government.
The precarious political environment in Tigray serves as a potential catalyst for war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. As Ethiopia seeks control of strategic territories, Eritrea perceives this as a threat to its sovereignty, intensifying tensions. This situation also complicates broader regional stability, with the possible spillover effects exacerbating Sudan’s civil war and generating further instability in the Horn of Africa.
Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have vested interests in the Red Sea region, complicating the dynamics further. As Ethiopia aligns with these Gulf states, Eritrea’s historical grievances deepen with accusations of sabotage against the Pretoria Agreement. Both parties view deteriorating relations ominously, fearing escalated military confrontations.
The rapid military mobilization among Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Tigrayan forces signals an imminent risk of conflict. Experts warn that a prolonged war could devastate the region, undermining any stability left amid existing crises throughout northeast Africa. The possibility of an expandable conflict draws attention to the significant call for diplomatic intervention.
Immediate diplomatic engagement from influential nations is crucial. A show of high-level interest from Western and Middle Eastern coalitions, along with the African Union, might help stabilize the situation by allowing time for diplomatic negotiations. Failure to act risks escalating violence and territorial disputes that could further destabilize the Red Sea region and beyond, leading to a humanitarian disaster.
The situation in Tigray reflects deep-rooted political tensions and historical animosities that could ignite a formidable conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The deterioration of the Pretoria Agreement places the region on the brink of war, with dire consequences for stability. A proactive diplomatic approach is essential to cool down hostilities and avoid repeated cycles of violence and humanitarian crises in the Horn of Africa.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
