Hamas aims to sustain military control over Gaza, drawing parallels to Hezbollah’s governance in Lebanon. Israel must counter this strategy to prevent Hamas from regrouping and strengthening its military. Various regional proposals may inadvertently enable Hamas’s objectives, emphasizing the need for Israel’s decisive military presence in Gaza.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Hamas aims to maintain military control over Gaza akin to Hezbollah’s previous dominion in Lebanon, seeking a ceasefire to regroup, rearm, and solidify its political power. Israel must counter this strategy, particularly amidst Egyptian diplomatic efforts that may inadvertently enable Hamas’s objectives.
Hamas’s primary goal is to secure a ceasefire for survival. This action would facilitate the rebuilding of its military and political control. The group is contemplating a governance model similar to Hezbollah’s past in Lebanon, presenting an internationally recognized government while retaining military authority and actual political power on the ground. This arrangement would provide Hamas with breathing room to strengthen its capabilities.
Proposals from Egypt advocating for a governance model involving the Palestinian Authority risk creating a situation reminiscent of Lebanon, as Israel has yet to complete its military campaign against Hamas. Egyptian President Fateh El-Sisi emphasized this concern during a summit aimed at discussing an Arab alternative to President Trump’s Gaza plan, reinforcing Egypt’s stance against Palestinian eviction.
Egypt has outlined a roadmap for Gaza suggesting temporary governance by a coalition of various states, lacking clarity on sidelining Hamas and funding for reconstruction. Despite earlier reports of Hamas agreeing to a transfer of control to the Palestinian Authority, it remains unlikely that Hamas will relinquish power and, instead, will use such arrangements to strengthen its military grip.
Hamas seeks to replicate Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon, where the group operated with significant military control alongside a weak governmental structure. Hezbollah established a shadow state, compromising Lebanese sovereignty and utilizing the government as a facade for international legitimacy until its military presence was severely diminished through conflict with Israel.
Should Hamas succeed in similar efforts, Israel could face diplomatic restrictions in neutralizing the organization, encountering international backlash over perceived violations of Gaza’s governing authority. The consequences of such a scenario would allow Hamas to rearm under international protection, complicating Israeli military efforts and ensuring continued threats to regional security.
To avert this situation, Israel must reenter Gaza and maintain control for an extended period, ensuring the complete dismantling of Hamas’s military capabilities. This would involve counterterrorism operations to prevent the resurgence of its capabilities while paving the way for longer-term governance arrangements, potentially supported by Gulf states and the U.S. Further restrictions should allow Israel the operational freedom necessary to prevent any buildup of terrorist threats.
In conclusion, Hamas’s strategy mirrors Hezbollah’s previous dominance in Lebanon, seeking to maintain military control under the guise of governance. Israel must decisively counter this to prevent Hamas from reestablishing its military power. A continued military presence and operational freedom in Gaza are necessary to dismantle Hamas’s capabilities completely, allowing for a potential future governance structure that ensures long-term stability.
Original Source: besacenter.org
