Ethiopia and Eritrea are on the brink of war, according to Tigray officials, endangering a fragile peace established in 2018. Rising tensions stem from factions within the Tigray region, military mobilizations, and historical grievances. Experts warn that further confrontations could lead to a humanitarian crisis in a region already affected by conflict.
Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have escalated, raising fears of imminent conflict as officials from Ethiopia’s Tigray region warn that war is possible. Such a conflict would reverse the historic peace achieved in 2018, for which Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed received the Nobel Peace Prize. Analysts caution that clashes could also exacerbate existing humanitarian crises in the Horn of Africa, where internal conflicts in Sudan and Somalia are already straining aid resources.
General Tsadkan Gebretensae, the vice president of the interim Tigray administration, expressed urgency over the tensions in the Africa Report, stating, “At any moment war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could break out.” The backdrop includes the bloody Tigray civil war from 2020 to 2022, which claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and remains a critical factor in current hostilities between factions.
The split of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) into opposing factions has intensified the situation. The dissident faction, accused of seeking an alliance with Eritrea, recently captured Adigrat. Getachew Reda, head of Tigray’s interim administration, has sought governmental support against these dissidents, warning that the Tigray population may suffer from a conflict they oppose.
Despite no official comment from Ethiopia’s central government, Eritrea has mobilized its military and Ethiopia has increased troop presence near the border, indicating rising military readiness on both sides. International experts like Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos observed that the situation remains precariously volatile, likening it to “dry tinder waiting for a match.”
Ethiopia and Eritrea’s tumultuous history includes a decades-long conflict that saw Eritrea gain independence in 1993, followed by a border war from 1998 to 2000. Relations had improved in 2018 but have soured again due to remarks about Ethiopia’s desire for sea access and Eritrea’s exclusion from peace talks. Additionally, Eritrea’s recent security pact with Egypt and Somalia appears to counteract Ethiopia’s expansionist views.
The situation between Ethiopia and Eritrea poses significant risks of renewed conflict, especially given the history of violence and territorial disputes. With Tigray’s internal divisions exacerbating tensions, and the mobilization of military forces on both sides, the potential for war could destabilize not just Ethiopia and Eritrea but the broader Horn of Africa. Unresolved grievances and political realities make the prospect of peace increasingly fragile.
Original Source: www.thestar.com.my
