Portugal is scheduled for its third election in three years due to the collapse of Luís Montenegro’s government following the Spinumviva scandal. Montenegro, after winning a minority government, faced accusations of conflict of interest leading to a failed parliamentary vote of confidence. The election is set for May 2025 amid rising tensions and a potential power shift among political parties.
Portugal is set to hold its third snap election in three years following the fall of Luís Montenegro’s center-right government. Voters are expected to return to the polls in May 2025 due to the political fallout from the Spinumviva scandal affecting Montenegro, who leads a minority government after winning a national election in early 2024. The earlier resignation of Socialist Prime Minister António Costa in relation to an influence-peddling investigation set the political stage for this frequent electoral turmoil.
The Spinumviva controversy began when questions arose about Montenegro’s ties to a data protection consultancy he founded in 2021. Though Montenegro transferred ownership of the firm to his family, he faced scrutiny over potential conflicts of interest, especially as the firm had government contracts. Accusations from opposition parties, including Chega and the Portuguese Communist Party, led to censure motions against the government, although these did not succeed.
Despite the failed censure motions, the questions raised by Spinumviva compelled Montenegro to seek a parliamentary vote of confidence. Aimed at dispelling rumors, he stated, “The country needs political clarification… to end the atmosphere of permanent insinuations and intrigues.” Ultimately, a majority of lawmakers voted against him, prompting the president to consult party leaders and plan for a snap election, likely on May 11 or May 18.
This upcoming election marks the beginning of another electoral cycle for Portugal, with additional local elections planned shortly after and a presidential election in January 2026. Polling indicates that Montenegro’s Democratic Alliance may again secure the most votes, closely followed by the Socialist Party, but political tensions have escalated considerably since the Spinumviva scandal.
Tensions between parliamentary groups have grown, complicating the formation of a stable government. The Democratic Alliance and the Socialist Party are expected to engage in a highly competitive campaign, escalating personal rivalries amid accusations. Given the lack of a clear majority in the next parliament and reluctance for cooperation, the ultra-nationalist party Chega could become a significant player in coalition talks should the election results mirror current trends. Montenegro’s leadership and strategy will be under scrutiny, especially if he fails to achieve the expected electoral results and faces calls to step aside for a different party figure.
Portugal’s political instability is underscored by the upcoming snap election, a consequence of scandals and failed confidence votes. The Spinumviva scandal has intensified rivalries among political factions, particularly between the Democratic Alliance and the Socialist Party. The absence of a majority in parliament suggests that Chega may hold significant power as a potential kingmaker. As tensions rise, the campaign landscape appears set for a contentious battle, impacting the future governance of Portugal.
Original Source: www.politico.eu
