South Sudan faces renewed tensions as violence surges in Upper Nile state, linked to political discord between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar. Recent cabinet reshuffles by Kiir, which excluded consultation with Machar, have sparked unrest. The UN warns of a humanitarian regression and escalating conflict, where the risk of civil war remains.
South Sudan is experiencing escalated tensions due to militia violence in Upper Nile state, cabinet reshuffles, and the arrest of senior officials in Juba. President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar are at the heart of this renewed insecurity, stemming from political disagreements that have resulted in violent clashes and are threatening a fragile peace established by a 2018 deal that ended a brutal civil war.
In February, Kiir dismissed key officials, some of whom Riek Machar viewed as infringing upon the 2018 peace agreement. This prompted protests in western Bahr al-Ghazal, where violence erupted in response to Kiir’s changes that were made without consulting Machar. Kiir’s redeployment of forces further triggered violence in Upper Nile, exemplified by an attack on a UN helicopter, which resulted in the death of a crew member and a South Sudanese general.
The UN-affiliated Radio Miraya implicated the White Army, a militia associated with the Nuer ethnic group, in the helicopter attack. Following the incident, several Western embassies condemned the act, while the US Embassy urged the departure of non-emergency staff, citing an ongoing armed conflict among various political and ethnic factions.
Mediators from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) are addressing the escalating situation. Uganda has deployed special forces to protect Juba, reiterating its alliance with Kiir, who may face opposition from Machar’s forces stationed nearby. Analysts indicate the situation is tense but remains relatively calm for now.
The United Nations has warned of a regression in South Sudan, criticizing both leaders for failing to implement peace agreement provisions and suggesting a return to destructive power struggles. The nation faces a humanitarian crisis, with over 50% of the population in acute food insecurity and millions displaced. Calls for political dialogue from civil society are increasing amid fears of renewed violence.
Tensions from the civil war era linger between Kiir and Machar, undermining trust and complicating the establishment of a unified military and constitution. Observers caution that civil war remains a real possibility, especially with armed factions loyal to both leaders dispersed throughout the country.
The ongoing crisis in neighboring Sudan exacerbates the situation, as South Sudan relies on oil exports through Sudan and military tensions spill over. While some suggest renewed violence may not be unavoidable, the effectiveness of international pressure on both leaders might play a crucial role in fostering peace.
To summarize, renewed tensions in South Sudan arise from political strife between leaders Kiir and Machar, resulting in violence and humanitarian crises. As regional and international stakeholders remain involved, the potential for civil war looms, dictated by the actions and relations of the current leadership and the pressures applied by external parties.
The situation in South Sudan is complex, characterized by political rivalries and a volatile security environment. The leadership struggles between President Salva Kiir and Riek Machar, alongside militia activity, pose significant risks to the stability of the nation. The ongoing humanitarian crises, displacement of populations, and international involvement underline the need for a diplomatic resolution. Whether full-scale civil war can be avoided hinges on the ability of leaders to rebuild trust and cooperate towards peace.
Original Source: www.dw.com
