The Horn of Africa faces a mounting crisis, with the potential for renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, centering on the Tigray region. The fragile peace established by the COHA is threatened by escalating tensions and aggressive rhetoric. Urgent action from international powers, especially the U.S. and EU, is necessary to promote stability and prevent further humanitarian disaster.
The Horn of Africa faces severe instability, primarily between Ethiopia and Eritrea, with the Tigray region as a critical flashpoint. The cessation of hostilities agreement from November 2022, signed by the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), helped quell violence after devastating years of war. However, recent tensions threaten this fragile peace, demanding urgent international intervention from powers like the U.S. and European Union.
The COHA marked a significant diplomatic breakthrough amid heavy losses for Ethiopian forces against the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF). However, despite initial progress, Ethiopia’s government has shown reluctance to fully recognize the TPLF and address key issues, such as territorial restoration, which undermines the agreement’s integrity. The enduring isolation and authoritarian regime of Eritrea further exacerbate these tensions, raising concerns about renewed conflict.
The relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea deteriorated following the Pretoria Agreement, as pressure from Eritrean leaders and militia groups grew for the total dismantlement of the TPLF. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s aggressive rhetoric about access to the sea has heightened regional tensions and spurred both countries to establish new alliances, heightening the risk of confrontation.
Ethiopia’s failed attempt to secure a foothold on Somaliland’s coast has intensified nationalist sentiments, with state media inflating war rhetoric against Eritrea. Eritrea, in turn, has mobilized troops, citing perceived threats from Ethiopia and the TPLF, leading to an escalation of military readiness on both sides.
The Ethiopian government’s narrative surrounding the Tigray conflict reflects tactics reminiscent of the prelude to previous wars. High-profile figures have touted a security justification for military action against Eritrea without sufficient evidence to support claims of TPLF collaboration with Eritrea. The lack of a credible response from the TPLF heightens suspicions and fears of impending conflict.
Amid escalating tensions, the Tigray region finds itself in a precarious position. The Ethiopian government’s refusal to uphold agreements regarding the TPLF and Tigray’s territories has deepened mistrust among Tigrayan leaders and their constituents. Internal discord within the TPLF and pressure from the federal government spark further instability within Tigray.
Tactical political maneuvers seen in previous conflicts are resurfacing, as the Ethiopian government continues to marginalize the TPLF politically and militarily. If renewed conflict ensues, it could trigger dramatic regional instability involving various international actors and extremist threats. This necessitates immediate and vigorous diplomatic intervention to prevent further escalation and humanitarian tragedy. Global powers must act now to facilitate dialogue and peace, reflecting on the lessons learned from the impactful and devastating previous conflict.
The ongoing tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea poses a significant risk of renewed conflict in the Tigray region, jeopardizing the fragile peace established by the COHA. Both domestic political maneuvers and external military posturing threaten to plunge the region into a new crisis, underscoring the urgent need for international diplomatic efforts. As the potential for catastrophic violence looms, global powers must mobilize swiftly to avert catastrophe and promote de-escalation.
Original Source: www.ethiopia-insight.com
