Experts warn that Thailand’s economy faces long-term impacts due to Trump’s trade war, with increased tariffs and global trade volatility threatening growth. Solutions discussed include enhancing domestic consumption, effectively managing currency reserves, and leveraging regional agreements. Industry leaders advocate for immediate strategies and long-term restructuring to mitigate risks, while proposals emphasize the importance of navigating relationships with both the US and China strategically.
Thailand is facing significant challenges due to the ongoing trade war initiated by former President Trump’s administration, with experts warning of long-term economic repercussions. A panel discussion titled “Trade War 2025: How to Deal with Trump?” brought together government and industry leaders to strategize on navigating new US trade policies. Don Nakornthap of the Bank of Thailand highlighted the risk of a global economic downturn if trade wars escalate, with countries like China and nations in North America already feeling the pressure of increased tariffs.
The volatility in global markets is evident, as countries affected by US tariffs, including China, Canada, and Mexico, experience currency depreciation. This situation poses a threat to the US economy as well, with concerns about a potential recession and speculation regarding future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Nakornthap suggested three key strategies for Thailand: enhancing domestic consumption, managing currency reserves, and maximizing benefits from regional trade agreements within ASEAN, which holds considerable growth potential.
Kobsak Pootrakool from the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organisations expressed the need for Thailand to brace for ongoing trade volatility. He noted concerning declines in stock indices, including the Dow Jones, and emphasized the broader implications that may extend beyond economics into international relations. He cautioned, “This storm will stay with us for four years,” highlighting the unpredictable nature of investments in this climate.
Dr. Kirida Bhaopichitr from the Thailand Development Research Institute pointed out the trade war’s detrimental effects on global trade growth, which impacts countries reliant on exports like Thailand. She outlined significant challenges, including potential tariffs faced by Thailand and an influx of Chinese goods, while also identifying possible opportunities for increased market openness.
Kriengkrai Thiennukul of the Federation of Thai Industries acknowledged Thailand’s position under scrutiny by the US administration due to its sizeable trade surplus, urging the government to engage further in talks as global competition heats up. He recounted the impacts of tariffs already imposed on Thai products and emphasized the need for strategic diversification into new markets.
In response to these pressures, various industry leaders proposed both immediate and long-term strategies to mitigate the trade war’s impacts. Immediate actions include utilizing trade data for negotiations, establishing a task force to manage US discussions, and reforming laws to shield local industries. Long-term goals involve restructuring key sectors to harness their strengths and enhancing workforce skills to align with future market demands.
Ex-Senator Pisan Manawapat highlighted Trump’s transactional approach to international trade, offering seven proposals for Thailand to collaborate better with the US while maintaining beneficial ties with China. These include understanding Trump’s policies closely and leveraging Thailand’s contributions to the US economy for potential trade advantages.
Lastly, Dr. Piti Srisangnam discussed potential future scenarios emerging from trade relations, ranging from heightened conflict to cooperative agreements between the US and China. Each scenario presents unique challenges for Thailand, requiring careful navigation of the evolving global economic landscape.
Thailand is navigating complex challenges presented by US trade policies, particularly under the Trump administration’s aggressive trade war strategies. Experts warn of significant long-term impacts on the Thai economy, urging immediate and strategic responses to mitigate risks. By enhancing domestic capabilities, managing currency fluctuations, and leveraging regional trade dynamics, Thailand can work toward a more resilient economic future while accommodating the unpredictable nature of geopolitical trade relationships. Collaborative efforts and proactive planning will be essential in addressing these multifaceted challenges.
Original Source: www.nationthailand.com
