Patrick Seale’s “The Struggle for Syria” highlights the historical fragmentation of Syria as a battleground for power. Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad in 2024, the HTS assumed control amidst ongoing regional rivalries. With complex domestic and international challenges ahead, the new regime’s effectiveness in establishing stability remains uncertain. The roles of actors like Turkey, Iran, and the US will significantly shape Syria’s future.
In 1965, British journalist Patrick Seale published “The Struggle for Syria,” noting that Syria’s fragmented state became a battleground for regional and international power struggles, evidenced by three coups in 1949. The country experienced temporary stability by merging with Egypt in the United Arab Republic, but regained independence in 1961. Hafez al-Assad centralized power in 1971, offering stability and a prominent regional role in exchange for a repressive regime primarily favoring the Alawite minority.
Following Hafez’s death in 2000, his son Bashar al-Assad faced significant challenges during his tenure. His attempts to manage the Arab Spring in Syria resulted in a devastating civil war. Despite Russian and Iranian military support in 2015, Assad’s control never fully regained the country, with only 60% under his regime and the remaining areas dominated by Turkey, Kurdish forces, and the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
The HTS, which evolved from the Al-Nusra Front, emerged strongly in Idlib province. Assad’s regime attempted to minimize HTS influence in late 2024, leading to conflict and a surprising offensive that resulted in HTS capturing key cities, including Aleppo and Damascus. By December 2024, Assad fled to Moscow, marking the end of his 50-year rule and the ascendance of al-Joulani as Syria’s new leader.
The regime’s change raises questions about its future direction and stability. The HTS will need to unify the fragmented Syrian state, negotiating with Kurds and various ethnic communities. Al-Joulani, who distanced himself from his Jihadi past, must navigate domestic pressures while gaining international recognition. Meanwhile, Iran and Hezbollah suffered significant losses, while Turkey emerged as a potential new ally for the HTS.
Regional actors aim to establish ties with the new Syrian regime. Turkey seeks to position itself as the HTS’s primary supporter, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE engage diplomatically. Israel remains vigilant as radical groups threaten its security, although Joulani has opted for a restrained approach regarding Israeli provocations, postponing discussions on peace.
As the US grapples with its position following the Assad regime’s fall, policy decisions will heavily influence the region’s political landscape. While the Biden Administration showed interest in engaging the new regime, the Trump Administration’s approach remains uncertain. With a small US military presence supporting Kurdish forces, any decisions reflecting indifference towards Syria could hinder efforts to stabilize the country within a broader Middle Eastern context.
The struggle for Syria continues to evolve, with implications stretching far beyond its borders. Active US participation remains essential to shaping a stable and cooperative regional order, underscoring the importance of informed policy decisions.
In summary, the struggle for Syria continues as the fall of the Assad dynasty brings forth significant changes in the political landscape. The emergence of the HTS-led regime presents new challenges and dynamics, not only domestically but also in the broader regional context. Key players, including Turkey, Iran, and the United States, must navigate this complex situation, determining their roles in shaping the future of Syria and its relationships in the Middle East.
Original Source: www.hoover.org
