Saudi Arabia’s renewed engagement in Lebanon follows a November ceasefire, reshaping its political landscape. Riyadh is pressing for changes in government alignment and curbing Hezbollah’s influence under stringent conditions. The move correlates with broader U.S. strategies, situating Lebanon on a trajectory towards potential normalization with Israel while facing significant internal and external pressures.
The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, brokered in November, has led to a new phase in Lebanon’s political landscape. This standoff ended with no clear military victor, prompting the U.S. and allies to leverage Lebanon’s vulnerabilities for political changes. Saudi Arabia was selected to lead this initiative due to its historical influence in Lebanon and connections with key Sunni factions in the country.
Riyadh quickly reorganized its approach, shifting oversight of Lebanon’s affairs from the Royal Court to the Foreign Ministry. This marked a pivot toward a more hands-on diplomatic approach and extensive engagement with local factions and religious institutions to address critical issues such as the presidential election.
Saudi Arabia’s renewed involvement follows a disengagement in 2017, when it forced former Prime Minister Saad Hariri to resign. Under new leadership, Saudi Arabia aims to recover from past mistakes, but this time with certain conditions attached that include diminishing Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanese politics.
President Joseph Aoun’s policies since January emphasize strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia for Lebanon’s recovery. His initial visit to Riyadh aimed to restore bilateral relations through discussions with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, highlighting Lebanon’s reliance on Saudi support.
Conditions for Saudi support now require Lebanon to curb Hezbollah’s influence. Riyadh’s financial and political backing is contingent on enforcing international resolutions and ensuring state authority over all territories while restricting Hezbollah’s funding and arms supply.
Saudi Arabia and the U.S. are scrutinizing Lebanon, expecting it to align with their agenda by increasing pressure on Hezbollah. This includes financial restrictions on reconstruction aid to certain areas of Lebanon, potentially benefiting the resistance movement.
Reflecting on the situation, journalist Maysam Rizk noted that Saudi Arabia and the U.S. view Lebanon as being on probation, aiming not just to disarm Hezbollah but to diminish its influence across the nation under the guise of reforms. Both powers appear to collaborate to enhance their regional allies while weakening resistant forces.
In response to regional shifts, Saudi Arabia is adjusting its strategy to gain leverage over Lebanese politics, particularly against competitors like Qatar. The goal is to ensure political fragmentation that aligns with Riyadh’s interests, utilizing economic power as leverage.
Analysts suggest this approach reflects a broader strategy aimed at reshaping Lebanon’s political system and curtailing entities like Hezbollah. The trajectory described by Dr. Fouad Ibrahim suggests that Saudi Arabia sees Israel’s military actions as a strategic defeat for Hezbollah, creating the perception of a shifting balance of power.
Concerns arise regarding Saudi Arabia’s potential push for Lebanon to normalize relations with Israel. This long-term objective seeks to consolidate control over Lebanon’s political landscape to gradually align with the U.S. and Israeli interests as states in the region grapple with their positions on Palestine.
The affectation extends to Lebanon’s Sunni community, which plays a critical role in the sectarian structure. As Saudi influence grows, there is pressure to reshape perceptions of Iran and Hezbollah within the community, as articulated by Rizk, who identifies a clear agenda pushing Lebanon towards normalization.
President Aoun hopes his upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia will improve bilateral relations and progress towards lifting the travel ban and reopening economic channels. Yet, skepticism remains regarding Riyadh’s commitment to substantive support beyond promises.
As Lebanon navigates these complex dynamics, the potential for instability looms large. Observers predict that pressures toward normalization may result in violence, much like what characterized Lebanon’s history. Dr. Ibrahim emphasizes that any recovery efforts must contend with the geopolitical context, particularly concerning developments in Syria which directly affect Lebanon’s resistance dynamics.
In summary, Lebanon currently faces a strategic dilemma: align with Saudi conditions or resist, with implications for internal stability and external relations. The outcomes of this process could significantly reshape Lebanon’s political landscape and its role in regional geopolitics.
Lebanon is entering a critical juncture shaped by Saudi Arabia’s renewed involvement and the U.S. agenda. Riyadh’s conditions for support highlight a strategic realignment aimed at curtailing Hezbollah’s influence and pushing for normalization with Israel. Lebanon must now contend with both internal power dynamics and external pressures, weighing the potential costs of compliance against resistance in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
Original Source: thecradle.co
