Brazil is experiencing a surge in fertilizer imports, attributed to favorable grain-fertilizer exchange rates. A Rabobank survey indicates that early purchases for the 2025/26 crop season reached 18%. Notable increases were observed in potassium chloride and monoammonium phosphate. Producers are adopting strategic purchasing approaches while high phosphate costs are likely to persist through 2025.
Brazil is experiencing a notable upswing in fertilizer imports, reaching levels not seen since the disruptions prompted by the 2022 Ukraine conflict. Favorable exchange dynamics between grains and fertilizers have led producers to capitalize on this scenario, driving an increase in imports.
A survey by Rabobank indicates that from November 2024 to January 2025, producers secured 18% of the anticipated fertilizer volume needed for the 2025/26 crop season, up from just 8% during the same period last year. Notably, January’s purchases reached 7% of the projected volume, an increase from 5% the previous year.
Bruno Fonseca, a fertilizer analyst at Rabobank, noted, “At the end of last year, sales of potassium chloride rose sharply because prices were very attractive… For other nutrients, such as phosphorus, it was not worth purchasing in advance due to high prices, and that trend is expected to persist for some time.”
The consulting firm Argus reported substantial imports of monoammonium phosphate (MAP), which is crucial for soybean, corn, and wheat production. In January alone, imports hit 283,300 tonnes, significantly up from 144,100 tonnes the previous January.
Argus predicts continued import growth but expects it to be more strategic, influenced by input price attractiveness. This allows importers to better manage their purchases in response to exchange rate variations.
Expectations for single superphosphate (SSP), a substitute for MAP in soybean cultivation, suggest a potential import increase of 18% to 23% due to its increasing cost-effectiveness. Currently, the exchange ratio for SSP appears more advantageous than for other fertilizers in Brazil.
Producers are acting swiftly to leverage favorable exchange conditions, with price lock-ins already in place for the 2025/26 soybean crop. Luiz Pedro Bier, vice president of Aprosoja Mato Grosso, mentioned, “A strong dollar means slightly higher revenues from grain exports, but it also significantly raises input costs.”
Industry sources report that producers are aggressively seeking optimal purchasing conditions for inputs. Some cooperatives are implementing competitive strategies to sell fertilizers ahead of the upcoming second crop planting season, although restocking for input retailers is contingent on a drop in the dollar’s exchange rate.
Experts anticipate that the high costs associated with tight margins and phosphate will continue to shape financial strategies throughout 2025, impacting the entire supply chain.
Brazil’s fertilizer importation is witnessing significant growth due to favorable economic conditions. Key factors include strong early purchasing patterns, strategic import practices based on price attractiveness, and proactive producer strategies to mitigate costs amid fluctuating exchange rates. The market is adjusting to ongoing challenges, including high phosphate prices and tighter margins, shaping future financial strategies for the agricultural sector.
Original Source: valorinternational.globo.com
