Tensions in South Sudan are escalating as President Kiir orders arrests of Vice President Machar’s allies, raising concerns over the stability of the 2018 peace deal. Fighting in Upper Nile and political infighting threaten the fragile peace established after years of conflict. Analysts warn of potential humanitarian crises exacerbated by ongoing violence and governance delays.
Tensions are escalating in South Sudan as President Salva Kiir has initiated high-level arrests and dismissals of political and military officials close to Vice President Riek Machar. The South Sudanese army has reportedly surrounded Machar’s residence in Juba, suggesting unstable relations between the factions. This situation arises in the backdrop of fighting that recently erupted in the Upper Nile region, further straining the 2018 peace agreement.
Since gaining independence from Sudan in 2011, South Sudan has grappled with conflicts, notably following the fallout between Kiir and Machar. Kiir’s dismissal of Machar in 2013 sparked a civil war that has led to significant loss of life and displacement. Ethnic divisions, particularly among the Dinka and Nuer tribes, fueled this conflict, complicating the political landscape.
The 2018 Revitalised Agreement on Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) aimed to resolve these disputes but has seen limited progress. Proposed reforms such as disarmament and elections remain unfulfilled, while fighting has persisted amid local armed group conflicts. Moreover, recent talks, including the Tumaini Peace Initiative, faced opposition from Machar’s SPLM/IO, indicating deepening divides.
The resurgence of violence in Upper Nile, beginning with clashes on February 14, raised alarms. Local groups, anticipating government disarmament efforts, engaged in conflict leading to civilian casualties. Government representatives, such as Information Minister Michael Makuei Lueth, attributed some violence to the White Army, an armed Nuer group tied to Machar.
The ongoing arrests of allies of Machar, including military figures and government ministers, signal a systematic crackdown that diminishes trust in the peace arrangements. SPLM/IO spokesman Pal Mai Deng warned that Kiir’s actions might jeopardize the 2018 deal and urged a return to dialogue.
International reactions included statements from Kenyan President William Ruto urging peace dialogue and concern from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). Multiple embassies issued calls for hostilities to cease, emphasizing the protection of humanitarian conditions in South Sudan.
If political infighting persists, analysts fear that violence could escalate. Delays in essential governance tasks like amending the constitution and proper elections are anticipated, particularly as commitments to the peace process wane. Activists have criticized both ruling factions for their lack of initiative, stressing the need for political dedication to avert renewed conflict and strengthen the peace process.
The current humanitarian crisis remains dire, with the World Food Programme forecasting a substantial funding shortfall to support those in need. Continued instability could lead to a worsening situation for the over 7.6 million facing food shortages, underscoring the pressing challenges for South Sudan’s future.
The emerging tensions between Salva Kiir and Riek Machar threaten to unravel the fragile peace achieved in 2018. Political arrests and military confrontations point to a deteriorating situation that could trigger renewed violence. Without genuine commitment to peace and governance reforms, South Sudan risks further destabilization, exacerbating an ongoing humanitarian crisis. The international community’s involvement is critical in fostering dialogue and ensuring adherence to the peace agreement to protect the nation’s future.
Original Source: www.aljazeera.com
