General Abebe Teklehaymanot (Jobe) predicts a high likelihood of war between Eritrea and Ethiopia, citing deteriorating relations and military mobilizations. He identifies control over Assab port and regime change as motivations. Jobe foresees possible intervention by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. and recalls missed opportunities from past conflicts.
Recent speculations from military officials indicate a potential resurgence of conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia. This follows the rapid deterioration of a once amicable relationship between Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Former Ethiopian Defense Force commander General Abebe Teklehaymanot, known as Jobe, claims the situation is escalating towards war, although the specific reasons for the breakdown in relations remain largely obscured.
In a recent interview, Jobe provided insights suggesting two potential motivations for an ensuing conflict: 1) control over the strategically significant Assab port, which has been contentious since it was effectively inaccessible to Ethiopia following decisions made by former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi; and 2) a regime change targeting the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ). Despite past assumptions of U.S. support for this agenda, Jobe highlighted a shift in policy under the Trump administration.
Jobe warned that several state actors, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, could intervene in the conflict due to their own strategic interests. Looking back on the 1998-2000 Eritrean-Ethiopian war, he expressed regret about not neutralizing the PFDJ then, citing the military capacity available at the time. Internal disagreements in the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) regarding military action contributed to missed opportunities.
Jobe criticized the post-war decision to allow Eritrea to rebuild its military. The period that followed was characterized by an uneasy standoff until 2018 when relations were normalized by Abiy Ahmed, a rapprochement that has since disintegrated, leading to renewed tensions.
Concerns that Tigray could become the primary battlefield in a renewed war reflect similar sentiments among current TPLF leaders. Jobe, residing outside the U.S., underscores the importance of understanding the forces at play amid rising hostility between these neighboring nations.
In summary, the likelihood of renewed conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia appears to be rising, according to insights from military expert Jobe. He has identified strategic motivations behind the deterioration of relations, including control of the Assab port and political regime change. The potential for foreign intervention adds complexity to an already explosive situation, which highlights the need for careful scrutiny of evolving dynamics in the region.
Original Source: borkena.com
