The La Niña phenomenon may soon come to an end, impacting global temperatures and hurricane activity. The emergence of a coastal El Niño in the eastern Pacific is leading to increased sea temperatures and altering weather patterns. This shift could potentially reinforce record-high global temperatures while simultaneously reducing the risk of hyperactive hurricane seasons.
La Niña, which arrived in January, appears to be ending soon, impacting global temperatures and hurricane activity. Normally cooling the Pacific, this phenomenon hasn’t substantially reduced the excessive global heat recorded in 2024 and 2025. Emerging signs suggest that this pattern will dissipate, potentially leading to another year of record-high temperatures globally.
A newly identified coastal El Niño in the eastern Pacific, particularly west of South America, has resulted in sea temperatures exceeding 5 degrees above average. This phenomenon can influence weather patterns locally and globally, as seen during previous coastal El Niño events in 2017 and 2023, which caused severe flooding and disease outbreaks in Peru.
The National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (ENFEN) has issued an “El Niño Costero Watch,” signaling continued observation of elevated sea temperatures. A significant change in wind patterns between January and February disrupted upwelling processes, leading to unexpected warming. Although predictive capabilities for La Niña and El Niño patterns have improved, the current warming is notably independent of Les Niña conditions.
In Peru, this warming can lead to intense rainfall and local agricultural disruptions. If the coastal El Niño persists into autumn, it may severely impact fisheries, particularly affecting fish species that depend on cooler waters. The coastal warming has previously caused extreme weather, flooding, and even fatalities due to disease outbreaks.
Although current forecasts suggest a full-blown El Niño is unlikely in 2025, a short-lived La Niña is expected to keep global temperatures high. Marine heat waves are still prevalent across ocean basins, echoing patterns established before La Niña’s arrival. Predictions indicate a potential shift to ENSO-neutral conditions, suggesting no impactful cooling is forthcoming.
The fading La Niña may not yet reflect the true state of ocean temperatures due to ongoing anthropogenic warming. As La Niña’s cooling effects diminish, the dynamics between the eastern Pacific’s warm waters and the Atlantic could inhibit hurricane activity. Increased ocean warmth coupled with a potential brief end to La Niña might lead to new temperature extremes for 2025 despite its earlier prevalence.
The potential ending of La Niña and the emergence of coastal El Niño raise significant concerns for global temperatures and hurricane activity. If the coastal warming continues, it may hinder hurricane formation, possibly resulting in record high temperatures globally. The interactions between these phenomena illustrate the complexities of climate dynamics and the unpredictable nature of weather patterns in the coming months.
Original Source: www.washingtonpost.com
