A report from the Alma Center highlights growing concerns regarding the Lebanese Armed Forces’ increasing Shi’itization and collaboration with Hezbollah, questioning its ability to enforce ceasefire agreements with Israel. President Aoun’s calls for state control over security appear undermined by the LAF’s connections to Hezbollah, prompting skepticism about its operational effectiveness in maintaining national stability. The report warns of significant demographic shifts within the LAF that threaten its independence from sectarian conflicts.
Recent insights from the Almor Research and Education Center raise serious concerns about the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in southern Lebanon, highlighting their growing ties with Hezbollah and a notable shift towards Shi’itization. The report cautions that the LAF may struggle to uphold the ceasefire with Israel. Despite Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s insistence on state-controlled national security, his actions appear to contradict these claims, especially during his visit to Saudi Arabia for renewed military aid, previously halted in 2016.
Aoun seeks to persuade international partners, asserting that the Lebanese state and the new Prime Minister Nawaf Salam can counterbalance Hezbollah’s influence. However, analysts like Tal Beeri from the Alma Center doubt Aoun’s rhetoric, pointing out that the LAF’s increasing cooperation with Hezbollah undermines its ability to function independently and fulfill its duties effectively.
The report outlines a concerning demographic shift within the LAF, marked by a decline in Christian recruits alongside a rise in Shiite enlistment. This trend raises fears of a potential Shiite majority within the army, compromising its neutrality and operational effectiveness against Hezbollah, particularly noted during the recent ceasefire violations when the LAF failed to restrict civilian crossings into IDF areas.
Moreover, ties between LAF personnel and Hezbollah members exacerbate concerns about the LAF transforming into a supportive platform for the militia, jeopardizing Western military resources and strategies. The report warns that if unchecked, this evolution could lead the LAF to function as a Hezbollah proxy force, merging their military capabilities.
The LAF has received about $3 billion in US military aid, but past instances of weapons leaking to Hezbollah raise doubts about its ability to counteract the militia effectively. Analysts argue that assumptions regarding the LAF as a stabilizing force against Hezbollah are fundamentally flawed.
To stabilize the situation, recommendations include isolating Hezbollah domestically, curtailing Iranian support, and addressing demographic shifts. Beeri emphasizes that reshuffling Shi’ite officers from southern Lebanon can help restore operational integrity within the LAF to fulfill ceasefire obligations. The ongoing tensions necessitate strategic military actions from Israel, though the effectiveness of this approach remains under scrutiny.
In summary, the increasing Shi’itization of the Lebanese Armed Forces raises significant concerns about its capability to maintain national security and uphold ceasefire agreements with Israel. Despite President Aoun’s efforts to claim state control over security, the LAF’s ties with Hezbollah cast doubt on its independence and effectiveness. As demographic trends shift and equipment leaks to Hezbollah persist, urgent measures are necessary to prevent further deterioration of Lebanon’s military neutrality.
Original Source: www.jewishpress.com
