Guinea-Bissau’s political crisis has escalated under President Embaló, who dissolved parliament amid accusations of undermining democracy. Opposition parties threaten protests as they contest his extended mandate. ECOWAS’s mediation efforts collapsed after Embaló expelled a delegation, signaling his preference for French support. The situation poses significant questions regarding ECOWAS’s authority and future interventions in West Africa.
In December 2019, Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló won Guinea-Bissau’s presidential elections, receiving a mandate set to end in 2025. However, as of December 2023, he dissolved parliament without scheduling new elections, prompting opposition accusations of power consolidation and constitutional violations. To express their dissent, opposition leaders have threatened mass protests and strikes unless a new election date is declared.
The official end date of Embaló’s term is also contested; opposition claims it ends on February 27, 2025, as stipulated by the constitution, while the Supreme Court controversially extended it to September 4, 2025, leading to fierce opposition.
Adding complexity, Embaló announced in September 2024 his intention to skip a second term, but later hinted he might revisit this decision, indicating ongoing political instability in the region.
ECOWAS dispatched a delegation on March 3, 2025, to address the escalating political deadlock, but the mission was abruptly terminated by Embaló, who admonished them to refrain from interfering in domestic affairs, effectively expelling the mediators.
Subsequently, Embaló confirmed to French President Macron his intent to run for a second term in upcoming elections, highlighting his preference for French assistance over ECOWAS intervention.
Following this incident, ECOWAS’s silence raises questions about its ability to enforce authority and support democracy in Guinea-Bissau, particularly when compared to its more decisive actions during past crises, such as those in The Gambia and Niger.
Embaló’s tenure, marked by indifference to ECOWAS, has placed Guinea-Bissau in a precarious political landscape, risking internal conflict and potential isolation amidst growing tensions.
Furthermore, the prospect of Embaló relying on French support poses further questions; he may benefit from consulting with Senegal’s President Macky Sall regarding the reliability of this foreign alliance in treacherous political contexts.
Finally, calls for the experienced diplomat Dr. Mohamed Ibn Chambas to intervene in Guinea-Bissau highlight the urgency of the situation, notwithstanding any existing commitments he may have to other countries, including The Gambia.
The political turmoil in Guinea-Bissau highlights a complex interplay between national governance and regional intervention, with President Embaló’s actions raising serious questions about electoral integrity and democratic norms. The role of ECOWAS remains under scrutiny as its inability to assert authority could undermine future intervention efforts in West Africa. Ultimately, these developments will impact both Guinea-Bissau’s political landscape and the credibility of ECOWAS in maintaining regional stability.
Original Source: thepoint.gm
