President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló currently faces a political crisis in Guinea-Bissau following his decision to dissolve parliament without setting new elections. His term’s end date is disputed, and opposition threats of unrest have arisen. ECOWAS’s mediation efforts have met hostility, raising questions about its role and effectiveness in the region. Embaló’s actions could redefine Guinea-Bissau’s future and ECOWAS’s authority in West African politics.
In December 2019, Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló won the presidential elections in Guinea-Bissau, gaining a five-year term that allows him to seek re-election in 2025. However, in December 2023, he controversially dissolved parliament without scheduling new elections, prompting opposition accusations that he is stalling to consolidate power and violating constitutional norms. This led to threats from opposition leaders for mass protests and civil disobedience unless he announces an election date immediately.
A significant issue arose regarding the official end of Embaló’s term. The opposition argues his mandate ends on February 27, 2025, as per the constitution, but the Supreme Court extended it to September 4, 2025. The opposition vehemently contests this ruling, escalating political tensions. Meanwhile, the political landscape shifted when Embaló announced he might not seek a second term but later suggested he could reconsider, further destabilizing the situation.
On March 3, 2025, ECOWAS sent a delegation to mediate the political crisis, but it faced hostility from Embaló. He effectively expelled the mediators, who were warned to stay out of the country’s internal affairs. Their unsuccessful mission raised concerns about ECOWAS’s assertion of authority, diverging from previous responses to political crises in the region.
After the delegation’s failure, Embaló confirmed to French President Emmanuel Macron his intention to run for a second term, indicating a preference for French involvement over ECOWAS engagement. This situation raises questions on the efficacy of ECOWAS’s interventions and whether its inaction sets a troubling precedent for future crises in West Africa.
President Embaló’s disregard for ECOWAS’s authority has escalated the political chaos in Guinea-Bissau, risking further instability. His reliance on French support indicates a shift in alliance dynamics, highlighting the urgency of determining the boundaries of ECOWAS’s intervention authority. Furthermore, the question persists as to whether the embattled leader has secured guarantees from France or relies solely on personal connections with Macron for political survival.
In light of these developments, one might suggest involving renowned mediator Dr. Mohamed Ibn Chambas to address the Guinea-Bissau crisis. Given the ongoing tensions, it is crucial for ECOWAS and external entities to act, addressing the pressing need for mediation and engagement with Guinea-Bissau’s political turmoil.
The political crisis in Guinea-Bissau, characterized by President Embaló’s controversial decisions and the response of ECOWAS, raises significant concerns about governance, the rule of law, and regional stability. Embaló’s firm stance against ECOWAS intervention and his preference for French support illustrate a complex geopolitical landscape. How these dynamics evolve will shape Guinea-Bissau’s future and test ECOWAS’s credibility as a stabilizing force in West Africa.
Original Source: thepoint.gm
