A study reveals that climate change is set to increase urban fire risks worldwide. If global temperatures rise beyond 4 degrees Celsius, projections suggest 300,000 fire-related deaths by 2100. Limiting warming to below 1.5°C could reduce this toll by half. Increases in outdoor and vehicle fires are anticipated, especially in high-emission scenarios, alongside significant risks noted in places like New Zealand.
A recent study published in Nature Cities indicates that climate change significantly elevates the risk of urban fires globally. Researchers analyzed fire incidents and temperature data across more than 2,800 cities in 20 different countries, representing over 20% of the global population. They forecast that if global warming exceeds 4 degrees Celsius, approximately 300,000 fire-related fatalities and over one million injuries could occur by 2100. Conversely, limiting warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius could mitigate these impacts by half.
The study predicts a 22.2% increase in outdoor fire incidences and an 11.6% rise in vehicle fires by 2100 under a high-emission scenario. Building fires, however, are expected to decline by 4.6%. Furthermore, each 1-degree Celsius rise in air temperature correlates with a 3.3% increase in vehicle fires and a 6.9% rise in outdoor fires. The analysis emphasizes the importance of monitoring temperature increases to manage fire risks proactively.
A specific focus was given to New Zealand, where the study suggests a potential 40% increase in urban fires by 2100 if climate change continues unchecked. Researchers emphasized that these findings will assist in formulating new fire prevention measures, including enhanced fire fuel management strategies. However, the study acknowledged a data shortfall from Africa and South America and did not fully account for the impact of rising electric vehicle usage on vehicle fires.
The analysis illustrates a clear link between rising global temperatures and increasing urban fire incidents. It underscores the urgent need for climate action to mitigate these risks and the potential catastrophic consequences of unregulated global warming. Enhanced fire management strategies and more comprehensive data collection will be critical in effectively addressing the evolving fire risks associated with climate change.
Original Source: www.aa.com.tr
