The Alma Research and Education Center report indicates the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) are increasingly influenced by Hezbollah, raising concerns about ceasefire enforcement. President Aoun claims state responsibility for security but faces skepticism regarding the LAF’s reality. Demographic shifts show diminishing Christian recruitment and rising Shiite numbers, fostering an environment of potential Hezbollah collaboration within the military forces.
A report from the Alma Research and Education Center raises concerns regarding the Lebanese Armed Forces’ (LAF) increasing loyalty to Hezbollah, describing a troubling trend termed “Shiitization.” This phenomenon raises doubts about the LAF’s capability to uphold the ceasefire agreement in southern Lebanon.
President Joseph Aoun advocates for state-led security, asserting, “Only the state will be responsible for security”—a stance questioned by analysts. Despite his rhetoric during a visit to Saudi Arabia, where he seeks aid renewal, skepticism about the LAF’s reality persists.
Analysts like Tal Beeri state that Aoun’s claims might align with U.S. expectations but do not reflect the actual conditions faced by the LAF. The report indicates a decline in Christian recruitment alongside an increase in Shiite enlistment—potentially leading to a Shiite majority within the LAF.
The report highlights collusion between Shiite commanders in the LAF and Hezbollah, compromising the LAF’s ability to act autonomously against Hezbollah. For instance, at a ceasefire deadline, the LAF failed to obstruct civilian incursions into Israeli positions, primarily due to reluctance from Shiite leadership.
The report notes that familial ties between Hezbollah operatives and LAF personnel increase the risk of using the LAF to support Hezbollah’s operations, which could include leaks of Western military knowledge and resources to the group.
Concerning the geopolitical implications, continual Shiitization could transform the LAF from a national army into a Hezbollah proxy force. With U.S. assistance totaling around $3 billion over two decades, concerns arise over potential leaks of U.S. military supplies to Hezbollah.
Ultimately, the report suggests preventative measures: isolating Hezbollah domestically and addressing the demographic shifts within the LAF to curb its alignment with the group. Beeri calls for the transfer of Shiite officers from southern units to restore operational integrity to the LAF, emphasizing the importance of its leadership structure in executing ceasefire agreements effectively.
The impact of Israeli military actions against Hezbollah is noted as significant but reliant on sustained effort. Beeri warns about the longevity of these initiatives, suggesting that without continuous pressure, Hezbollah could regain strength.
The report from the Alma Research and Education Center reveals a concerning alignment between the Lebanese Armed Forces and Hezbollah, casting doubt on the LAF’s ability to enforce ceasefire agreements. Demographic shifts, particularly the rise of Shiite representation within the LAF, threaten its independence. President Aoun’s assurances of state-led security are met with skepticism, with analysts urging intervention to stabilize Lebanon’s military before it potentially succumbs to factional influences. Efforts must focus on reassigning Shiite officers and reinforcing the LAF’s capability to operate independently to prevent Hezbollah from monopolizing military power in the region.
Original Source: www.israelhayom.com
