The ISW warns that cutting military aid to Ukraine would undermine US negotiating power and embolden Russia, potentially shifting the conflict’s balance in favor of Moscow. Recent discussions in the Trump administration about halting aid come after a contentious meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy. The ISW emphasizes the importance of continued support to maintain geopolitical stability and deter adversarial nations.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) cautions that halting military aid to Ukraine could severely weaken the US’s negotiating power in the conflict, potentially favoring Russia. This warning comes in light of discussions within the Trump administration regarding the suspension of support, which followed a contentious meeting between President Trump and President Zelenskyy of Ukraine on February 28.
Initially set to further a US-Ukraine mineral agreement as part of military assistance, the meeting turned confrontational, resulting in the Ukrainian delegation leaving without signing the deal. Trump expressed frustration with Zelenskyy’s approach to peace talks, alleging that Ukraine was “gambling with World War III” by not conceding to Russian demands. Zelenskyy countered that any ceasefire would necessitate security guarantees, underscoring Russia’s past violations of ceasefires.
Since the onset of the war, the US has provided over $65.9 billion in military support to Ukraine, making it the leading nation in assistance. Zelenskyy has stressed the importance of this support, stating that Ukraine cannot win the war without it. The ISW notes that historical data links Russian territorial gains to lapses in Western military aid, as seen when Russian advances occurred during aid declines in spring 2024.
The continuous flow of Western support is crucial for maintaining Ukrainian resistance and disrupting Russian advancements. Notably, US-supplied military systems, like Patriot air defense and HIMARS, have enabled Ukraine to exert significant pressure on Russian forces, which are already facing economic and logistical challenges.
The ISW further warns that stopping military assistance would embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin, increasing his demands and belief in achieving complete victory through military means. Additionally, cutting support risks diminishing US global influence and emboldening adversaries such as Iran, North Korea, and China, all of whom have connections to Putin’s military efforts.
According to the ISW, US support signifies a commitment to defend democracies against aggression globally. The abandonment of Ukraine may signal to adversaries that America could similarly withdraw from supporting other allies, prompting further global challenges to US commitments.
The ISW’s detailed analysis underscores the critical importance of US military assistance to Ukraine not just for its immediate defense but for broader geopolitical stability. Halting aid could embolden adversaries, negatively impacting US global influence and encouraging further acts of aggression worldwide. The situation underscores the precariousness of international alliances in the face of unresolved conflicts such as the one concerning Ukraine and Russia.
Original Source: euromaidanpress.com
