Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed visited Somalia, aiming to solidify relations post-tensions linked to a MoU with Somaliland. The Ankara Declaration appears to facilitate this rapprochement, with Somalia retaining Ethiopian troops for regional stability. Analysts view these actions as shifts in the Horn of Africa’s geopolitics, emphasizing the region’s need for collaborative approaches to address ongoing challenges.
This week, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed visited Mogadishu to meet with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, following Mohamud’s visit to Addis Ababa last month. The meeting comes after their signing of the Ankara Declaration in late 2024, which marked an end to a year of heightened tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia related to Ethiopia’s Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland. This visit is viewed as a strong commitment to solidifying relations that had been strained since January 2024.
During the discussions, PM Abiy highlighted the need for integration and collaboration in the Horn of Africa, emphasizing the region’s abundant resources and the necessity for joint efforts to achieve developmental goals. He stated, “We cannot grow in isolation, but together, we can thrive.” This visit indicates a progression towards implementing the Ankara Declaration and signals a potential decline in the significance of Ethiopia’s MoU with Somaliland.
In a significant exchange, Somalia has opted to retain Ethiopian troops in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which started last month, rather than seeking to replace them with Egyptian forces. Analysts view these developments as a transformative change in regional geopolitics, especially after the recent alignment between Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt against Ethiopia.
The fluid relationships within the Horn of Africa have been characterized by frequent shifts in alliances. As observed by Constantinos Berhutesfa, a former AU anti-graft commissioner, historically, friendships between neighboring countries have fluctuated rapidly, highlighted by relatively stable ties between Ethiopia and Kenya. The normalization of relations between Ethiopia and Somalia can partly be attributed to both the Ankara Declaration and uncertainties surrounding the MoU’s relevance in light of Somaliland’s political changes.
Furthermore, the current rapprochement signals setbacks for Egypt’s strategy to marginalize Ethiopia by utilizing Somalia as an ally. Constantinos mentions Somaliland’s potential recognition by Western powers, such as the US and the UK, which complicates Ethiopia’s diplomatic landscape. This evolving situation also risks straining relations with Eritrea, especially following Somalia’s realignment with Ethiopia after their earlier tripartite agreement with Eritrea and Egypt.
Despite these tensions, Constantinos remains cautious about the prospect of military conflicts reigniting between Ethiopia and Eritrea, citing the heavy toll of previous wars. While diplomatic rhetoric has heated up, he believes a direct confrontation is unlikely. Both nations, having faced substantial losses, seem to prioritize stability over conflict.
Constantinos advocates for Ethiopia to assume a regional peacekeeping role throughout the Horn of Africa, emphasizing the importance of internal stability and a renewed image of diplomatic leadership. He calls for Ethiopia to initiate international discussions to address regional crises and enhance its credibility on the international stage.
He identifies the need for Ethiopia to host peace and security summits that involve neighboring countries and international organizations, positioning the nation at the forefront of resolving broader regional conflicts. This effort could gradually reshape Ethiopia’s narrative from a state on the brink of failure to one that advocates for peace and stability in East Africa, contributing to its historical legacy in peacekeeping.
Ethiopia’s recent diplomatic engagement with Somalia marks a critical step in stabilizing regional relations following a year of tensions exacerbated by Ethiopia’s MoU with Somaliland. The visit of PM Abiy Ahmed reflects a commitment to collaboration and integration in the Horn of Africa, while also navigating complex geopolitical dynamics involving Eritrea and Egypt. As Ethiopia seeks to consolidate its leadership role, hosting regional peace summits could further enhance its standing and contribute positively to the region’s stability.
Original Source: www.thereporterethiopia.com
