The article discusses the renewed but complicated relations between Lebanon and Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. It highlights the risks posed by sectarian fragmentation and geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Hezbollah’s diminished influence and rising extremism. It also emphasizes critical bilateral issues and the need for stability and cooperative dialogue in navigating post-Assad challenges.
Lebanon and Syria share deep intertwined histories and destinies. With Ahmed al-Sharaa leading Syria post-Assad and for the first time under Joseph Aoun and Nawaf Salam’s leadership, there exists an opportunity for bilateral relations to reboot. However, ongoing sectarian fragmentation and potential conflict dynamics threaten prospects for peace in this new chapter of Lebanese-Syrian relations.
After Bashar al-Assad’s regime was ousted on December 8, 2024, feelings of joy swept across Lebanon, primarily due to the country’s historical grievances against Syrian occupation that lasted from 1976 to 2005. Even after the end of the occupation, Syria maintained a significant influence in Lebanon, mainly through Hezbollah, which has acted as a conduit for Iranian arms.
The fall of Assad’s regime represents a significant setback for Hezbollah, who had relied on Assad’s support for its operations, especially during the Syrian civil war. The new Syrian government is reportedly hostile towards Hezbollah, creating a rift in once-cohesive political alignments within Lebanon.
Amidst this upheaval, Hezbollah’s political credibility has also taken a hit, particularly as their preferred presidential candidate, Suleiman Frangieh, lost favor following the regime’s fall. Furthermore, the new Syrian leadership appears less inclined to oppose Israel, causing concerns about Hezbollah’s strategic position between adversaries.
The political landscape is further complicated by rising sectarian tensions influenced by Salafist movements in Lebanon seeking to strengthen ties with radical groups in Syria. These dynamics provoke fears of local conflicts that could adversely affect both nations.
Both Lebanon and Syria confront lingering issues such as frozen Syrian assets in Lebanon and the repatriation of refugees, which have been interlinked in negotiations. Tensions have surged along the border, exemplified by clashes due to alleged Hezbollah activity, which reflect the fragilities in post-Assad Syria’s ability to exert control.
The border violence has sparked worry in Lebanon about Syria’s stability and its potential consequences, as new leadership seeks control amid dissenting factions. While Lebanon’s new government expresses a need for collaboration, challenges remain, particularly due to differing views among Lebanese political parties regarding Syria’s future.
Israel’s regional strategies will significantly impact Lebanon-Syria relations. The new Syrian government’s posture towards Israel, particularly its willingness to confront Israeli aggressions, remains unclear, contributing to mutual concerns over sectarian fragmentation and regional conflicts.
Finally, analysts suggest both nations must reinforce their territorial control and initiate dialogue to avert historical mistakes. It is posited that the success of Lebanese-Syrian relations hinges on Syria’s stability and its handling of sectarian groups threatening cross-border tranquility.
In summary, Lebanese-Syrian relations are at a pivotal juncture following Assad’s ouster. Although opportunities for a reset exist under new leadership, significant obstacles—including sectarian tensions, geopolitical threats from Israel, and internal Lebanese divisions—present challenges. Both nations must prioritize stability, territorial integrity, and mutual dialogue to navigate this complex landscape effectively.
Original Source: www.newarab.com
