The M23 rebellion is decisively advancing in the DRC, capturing major cities and utilizing resources to enhance its power. This has led to a humanitarian crisis and regional instability, with potential consequences echoing past conflicts. Talks for a peaceful resolution have been largely ineffective, highlighting the need for urgent diplomatic and military strategies to address the turmoil.
The M23 rebellion, backed by Rwanda, has made significant territorial gains in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) since January 2025, having captured the capitals of North and South Kivu, Goma and Bukavu, respectively. Congolese forces have struggled to resist, especially after the departure of European mercenaries. Burundian troops in South Kivu have begun withdrawing as M23 overruns locations like Kavumu airport.
M23 continues its offensive, moving towards Uvira and attacking FARDC positions on its way. Ugandan forces have also entered the DRC, claiming they are not in conflict with M23, raising suspicions among analysts about possible coordination. The ongoing violence has exacerbated the DRC’s humanitarian crisis, with many people displaced and a death toll that remains contentious but significant, possibly around 3,000.
Before the current M23 advancement, around 500,000 people were already displaced in Kivu, contributing to a total of 4.6 million displaced Congolese. There is a heightened concern for mass atrocities as the conflict escalates. Calls for peace from regional bodies like the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have largely gone unheeded due to tensions between these groups.
Many analysts observe that M23 appears to be more organized and capable than in past conflicts. The group likely received military training and support since 2013, with a UN investigation implicating Rwanda and Uganda in supplying arms and personnel. The Congolese government, meanwhile, relies on SADC assistance, which has faced significant casualties in recent encounters with M23 forces.
M23 has begun implementing governance structures in captured areas and actively consolidating power by integrating defeated FARDC members. The group has also expanded its control over valuable mineral resources essential for global supply chains, particularly in coltan, lithium, and cobalt. Reports indicate M23 earns substantial revenue from resource taxation, prompting calls for the EU to reassess agreements with Rwanda.
Recent summits aimed at achieving peace solutions have failed due to a lack of consensus, and tensions continue to build between the DRC and its regional neighbors. Tshisekedi’s government seeks military support from Chad, acknowledging a potential escalation into broader conflict reminiscent of historical wars in Congo. The multi-state dynamics require a reevaluation of alliances and foreign interventions to stabilize the DRC.
Potential future scenarios for the DRC include military annexation by Rwanda, a national rebellion, or a prolonged civil war if diplomatic efforts falter. Observers stress the need for inclusive dialogue and establishing a processes that addresses underlying ethnic tensions. The recommendation includes a second Congolese National Conference aimed at fostering democratic state building and legitimate governance by involving various political factions and societal groups.
The DRC is in a vulnerable state due to the M23 conflict, exacerbating humanitarian crises and geopolitical tensions in the region. With the possibility of a national rebellion or even a civil war looming, it is crucial to explore inclusive avenues for dialogue and reconciliation. The resolution of this situation hinges on regional cooperation and commitment to establishing sustainable governance.
Original Source: reliefweb.int
