The M23 rebellion, gaining momentum in the DRC with little resistance from FARDC, raises concerns over humanitarian crises and regional stability. Despite attempts at diplomacy, tensions between the DRC and its neighbors hinder collaborative efforts. Various potential scenarios suggest worsening conditions, emphasizing the need for inclusive dialogue and diplomatic interventions to restore peace and security.
Since late January 2025, the M23 rebellion, widely believed to be supported by Rwanda, has steadily advanced in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), taking control of Goma and Bukavu, the capitals of North and South Kivu. The M23 is facing minimal resistance from Congolese forces, known as FARDC, particularly after the departure of European mercenaries. Additionally, Burundian troops are reportedly withdrawing after losing key positions to the M23.
Following its rapid advances, M23 is now moving further south towards Uvira and north towards Butembo, with Ugandan troops entering the DRC and capturing Bunia under the pretext of combating the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). However, suspicions grow around potential cooperation between Ugandan and M23 forces, despite Uganda’s assertions of neutrality. This collaboration is underscored by some Ugandan military leaders expressing support for M23’s objectives.
The humanitarian situation in the DRC has deteriorated, with mass displacements occurring in multiple regions. An estimated 3,000 fatalities resulted from M23’s offensive, leading to further unrest as 500,000 individuals were already uprooted before this crisis. Total displacement has surged to 4.6 million, indicating the severity of the ongoing conflict, exacerbated by violence from various armed groups.
Despite calls by the East African Community (EAC) and Southern African Development Community (SADC) for a ceasefire, progress has stalled due to regional tensions and the continued M23 advance, which many blame on foreign interference from Rwanda and Uganda. This discontent is evident as protestors have attacked foreign embassies in Kinshasa, showcasing the public outcry against external involvement.
Experts warn of a potential regional crisis, noting that the M23’s current advance could lead to further instability reminiscent of earlier Congo wars. Observers suggest that M23 may have rallied significant military and organizational support since its last significant conflict in 2012. Recent reports indicate that M23 forces are closely integrated with the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF).
At the same time, the Burundi National Defence Force (BNDF) has engaged M23 alongside Congolese military forces. The deteriorating relations between Rwanda and Burundi also complicate matters, with both countries accusing each other of harboring rebel factions. Burundian forces have reportedly retreated due to fierce M23 offensives.
Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi has sought support from SADC forces amidst escalating violence, with heavy casualties reported during clashes. Currently, only about 1,300 troops remain deployed in Goma, as ongoing M23 advances have limited their operational capacity. South Africa holds Rwanda accountable for the losses and has threatened military retaliation if needed.
As diplomatic discussions unfold, the established governance by M23 in occupied areas marks a strategic shift from prior rebel behaviors. They are now focusing on controlling mineral-rich territories, increasing their revenue from mining operations, specifically coltan, while promoting an alliance with other armed factions in the DRC. Their partnership strategy displays a shift towards political ambitions, seeking broader control.
Efforts to resolve the conflict through regional summits have mostly failed due to strained relations and disorganized attempts to coordinate regional responses. The DRC’s refusal to cooperate with EAC forces has led to escalated military responses and a request for SADC support. The current conflict may spiral into another all-out war unless comprehensive diplomatic solutions are enacted.
Potential scenarios include M23 establishing control over the Kivus, leading to a permanent Rwandan influence; a national rebellion potentially overthrowing the DRC government; or a drawn-out civil war reminiscent of past conflicts. Resolving these issues necessitates an inclusive dialogue, including all political entities across the DRC, backed by strong regional actors,
Experts advocate for a new Congolese National Conference involving all stakeholders and efforts to build a democratic state. Key measures include establishing a monitoring system for regional relations, a military pause supported by international forces, and a commitment to resolving long-standing citizenship issues among Congolese of Rwandan descent. The focus on diplomacy and cooperation is crucial to restoring stability in the DRC, drawing from a wealth of regional conflict resolution experiences.
The ongoing M23 rebellion in the DRC poses significant challenges, highlighting the interplay of regional politics, humanitarian crises, and armed conflict. The potential for various scenarios, including military control, national rebellion, or civil war underscores the need for inclusive dialogue and international mediation. Measures must focus on fostering good neighborly relations, addressing humanitarian needs, and seeking sustainable political solutions to end the escalating violence.
Original Source: reliefweb.int
