China missed its 2024 climate target, with emissions slightly rising due to coal dominance despite increased renewable energy use. The country’s carbon intensity fell short of official goals, leaving analysts concerned about its commitments under the Paris Agreement. Reforms are needed to balance industrial growth with sustainability as China aims for net-zero by 2060.
Official data released on February 28 revealed that China did not meet its crucial climate target for 2024, with emissions slightly increasing as coal continued to dominate its energy landscape. This setback signifies a deviation from a key commitment under the Paris climate agreement, raising concerns among analysts regarding China’s environmental progress.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported a 3.4% decline in carbon intensity, which measures carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP, falling short of the official goal of 3.9%. This performance places China behind its aim of an 18% reduction in carbon intensity from 2020 to 2025.
While emissions increased slightly from the previous year, experts remain uncertain if China has reached its peak emissions ahead of its 2030 target. However, meeting the Paris Agreement’s goal of a 65% reduction in carbon intensity from 2005 levels by 2030 is already considered challenging.
Lauri Myllyvirta, a lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, emphasized that to meet the Paris target, carbon intensity would need to decrease by 22% during 2026-2030. Myllyvirta noted, “This is a key test of China’s commitment to its pledges under the agreement.”
Despite leading in renewable energy production, China remains the largest emitter of greenhouse gases. The government aims to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2060, with some analysts suggesting that broader renewable installations and slowing growth might lower emissions in 2024.
Determining when emissions peak will require more data over upcoming years, as currently, China’s carbon emissions are still impacted by strong industrial growth, which has increased energy demand beyond clean energy infrastructure’s capacity.
Senior energy analyst Muyi Yang stated that urgent reforms to enhance energy market flexibility and expand clean energy infrastructure are necessary to balance industrial growth and sustainable energy progress. “Rapid industrial growth has driven energy demand to increase at a pace that outstrips the build-up of clean energy infrastructure,” Yang stated.
In 2024, total energy consumption rose by 4.3% compared to 2023, with coal providing over half of the country’s energy supply. However, renewable energy showed significant growth. Yang mentioned that China is nearing the point where new electricity demand will predominantly be met by renewable sources, signaling a potential decline in coal usage.
Beijing plans to announce its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030 later this year, which is expected to include updated emissions and energy targets. The city was also set to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris agreement, but missed the deadline; UN officials anticipate these will be submitted in 2025.
China’s climate goals face significant challenges as it missed its 2024 emissions target, raising concerns about its commitment to the Paris Agreement. While renewable energy capacity is expanding, coal remains the dominant power source, hindering progress. Analysts emphasize the need for reforms and infrastructure development to align industrial growth with sustainability. The forthcoming Five-Year Plan and updated emissions targets are vital steps in China’s climate strategy moving forward.
Original Source: www.straitstimes.com
