In 2024, China missed a vital climate target as emissions slightly increased, demonstrating continued reliance on coal despite rising renewable energy production. The carbon intensity fell by 3.4%, below the 3.9% goal, and the nation is behind on its target for an 18% reduction from 2020 levels by 2025. Analysts project ongoing industrial growth may hinder progress toward climate commitments, emphasizing the need for improved clean energy infrastructure.
China’s emissions in 2024 slightly increased despite a notable rise in renewable energy, indicating the nation has not met a crucial climate commitment. Official statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics reveal carbon intensity fell by just 3.4%, failing short of the 3.9% target necessary to stay on track with the Paris climate agreement goals. Consequently, the country is lagging behind its objective of an 18% reduction in carbon intensity by 2025 compared to 2020 levels.
Carbon emissions recorded a slight rise from the previous year, falling far below earlier increases. Analysts are debating whether China has reached a peak in emissions prior to its 2030 timeline, although experts express skepticism about achieving the targeted 65% reduction in carbon intensity from 2005 levels by 2030. Lauri Myllyvirta from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air highlights the challenge, emphasizing that a 22% drop in carbon intensity is required between 2026 and 2030 to meet the Paris targets.
As the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, China is simultaneously a leader in renewable energy production, aiming for peak carbon emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2060. Some analysts believe that due to slow economic growth and rapid renewables expansion, emissions may have plateaued. However, it might take additional years of data to confirm any potential peak in emissions, which would be assessed retrospectively.
Analysts suggest that while coal use is projected to grow slowly until additional nuclear and hydro capacity comes online around 2030, the lack of essential structural conditions raises concerns for significant emissions reductions ahead of the 2030 target. Current industrial growth trends lead to increased energy demand, which is outpacing the expansion of clean energy resources, according to Muyi Yang of Ember.
China’s total energy consumption rose by 4.3% compared to 2023, with coal still contributing over 50% of the energy mix, despite substantial increases in renewable sources. Yang remarks that once the energy needs shift to being met entirely by renewables, coal usage could decline. Furthermore, anticipation builds for China’s 15th Five-Year Plan to be announced later this year, which will include updates on emissions and energy goals.
China’s failure to meet its 2024 climate targets, highlighted by rising emissions and unmet carbon intensity goals, presents significant challenges to its commitments under the Paris Agreement. The growth in coal use remains a major barrier against achieving deeper emissions reductions. Experts call for reforms to strengthen clean energy infrastructure alongside industrial growth for a sustainable energy future. Moreover, upcoming policy updates, such as the 15th Five-Year Plan and revised emissions targets, will be crucial in shaping the country’s climate action moving forward.
Original Source: www.news-journal.com
