The YR4 asteroid, previously feared for a possible impact with Earth, is now expected to miss, with its collision probability dropping from 3.1% to 0.28%. Impact zones included Sudan, known for past asteroid events. Historical context informs the importance of asteroid monitoring and research in preventing potential disasters.
The YR4 asteroid, initially assessed by scientists to pose a potential threat to Earth, appears to be veering off its predicted path, alleviating concerns about its impact. Previously, NASA projected a possible impact date of December 22, 2032, with Sudan among the possible strike locations due to its history of asteroid encounters.
Earlier this month, estimates indicated a 3.1 percent chance of YR4 hitting Earth. However, new calculations have revealed a sharp decline in this probability to under one percent, currently standing at just 0.28 percent. Notably, the likelihood of it hitting the Moon increased from 0.8 percent to 1.0 percent.
The potential impact of YR4 was estimated to release energy equivalent to 15 million tons of TNT. Possible impact zones include northern South America, southern Asia, the Pacific Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and sub-Saharan Africa, with Sudan being a notable candidate due to past incidents.
Sudan previously experienced asteroid activity when the 2008 TC3 meteor exploded above the Nubian Desert, scattering debris. This event marked a milestone as the first successful prediction of an asteroid entering the atmosphere, leading to the recovery of about 600 meteorites known as Almahata Sitta, which hold scientific significance.
Almahata Sitta’s fragments contain valuable micro-diamonds and other materials, igniting scavenging activities for their potential worth. The asteroid is believed to be remnants of a primordial planet that existed millions of years ago and orbited Earth.
In conclusion, while initial fears regarding YR4’s potential collision with Earth have diminished significantly, ongoing monitoring of the asteroid will remain crucial. The historical context of asteroid impacts in Sudan underscores the importance of vigilance in planetary defense and research into these celestial bodies’ compositions.
In summary, the potential impact of the YR4 asteroid has been significantly downplayed, with current probabilities indicating a very low risk. Scientists continue to monitor asteroids closely given their historical impacts on Earth, particularly in areas like Sudan, highlighting the need for continued vigilance in planetary defense.
Original Source: www.newarab.com
