The conflict in Sudan marks a precarious turning point as the military gains ground against the RSF. Despite recent advances suggesting a potential takeover of Khartoum, the RSF’s declaration of a parallel government and persistent power struggles indicate ongoing instability and humanitarian crises affecting millions. Displacement continues, and conditions remain dire for returning citizens.
The conflict in Sudan has reached a pivotal moment after nearly two years of warfare, resulting in tens of thousands dead and millions displaced. For the first time, the Sudanese military is reporting consistent advances against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), hinting at a potential reclaiming of Khartoum. In response, the RSF has declared plans to form a parallel government, signaling ongoing tensions and conflict potential.
The war erupted in April 2023 following a collapse of the military’s partnership with the RSF, originally meant to guide a democratic transition post-uprising. This violence has escalated to extensive fatalities and a humanitarian crisis, with over 14 million displaced individuals. Recently, military forces have penetrated Greater Khartoum and retaken key areas in neighboring provinces, signifying a shift in the conflict’s dynamics.
Despite the military’s recent territorial gains, speculation abounds about the possibility of a lasting resolution. A military victory in Khartoum could lead to divided control between the military and RSF zones. Analysts argue this split is unlikely to be stable, with military chief General Burhan and RSF leader General Dagalo showing little inclination toward peace negotiations. The RSF retains significant control in the western regions, notably Darfur, exacerbating the situation.
The RSF’s recent establishment of a parallel government in Kenya aims to assert political power amid military defeats. This move indicates their intention to create legitimacy despite ongoing warfare challenges. Concurrently, the military plans a transitional government, resulting in potential struggles for authority that deepen Sudan’s partitioning conflict, as warned by activists concerned about national fragmentation.
The RSF’s charter envisions a diverse and decentralized Sudan. However, its controversial origins in the Janjaweed militia haunt its reputation, especially given prior allegations of sexual violence and war crimes. The international community remains alert, especially after the U.S. sanctioned Dagalo for genocidal actions. In Sudan, political factions exhibit mixed responses to these developments, indicating a fractured landscape that mirrors the societal divisions worsened by war.
Despite ongoing violence, some displaced Sudanese are beginning to return home, particularly to army-controlled regions. A notable influx of returnees from Egypt has been reported, with many resettling in areas previously abandoned due to conflict. However, the humanitarian conditions remain dire, as crucial resources such as water and medical aid are severely lacking in these returning zones.
As the Sudanese military advances against the RSF, the conflict enters a critical phase with the potential for further fragmentation and ongoing humanitarian crises. Proposed parallel governments by the RSF underscore the complicated political dynamics, while the military’s territorial gains offer only a glimpse of hope amid deep-rooted mistrust and violence. Ultimately, the situation remains precarious, necessitating urgent international attention to prevent further catastrophe.
Original Source: www.thespec.com
