Egypt’s role in the Palestinian issue has diminished since the 2013 military coup, with Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE gaining influence. Sisi’s regime faces pressure to align interests with Gulf states while combating Hamas. Speculation arises about potential displacement of Palestinians into Sinai, posing risks to Egypt’s demographics and political stability.
Since the signing of the Camp David Accords in 1978, Egypt has been the principal Arab nation influencing the Palestinian issue, particularly as its direct confrontations with Israel diminished. Traditionally, Egypt represented the Arab voice advocating for Palestinians. However, after the 2013 military coup, Egypt’s economic instability decreased its regional significance, with Gulf states gaining influence through financial support.
With Egypt no longer the primary mediator, Saudi Arabia emerged as a key player in the Palestinian issue. The Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, have assumed important roles, contributing financially to Gaza and facilitating political dialogues, largely overshadowing traditional roles held by Egypt and Jordan. This shift demonstrates the changing dynamics within the Arab world.
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s government has prioritized personal and regime interests, often at the expense of broader national security. This was evident when Egypt ceded the strategic Tiran and Sanafir islands to Saudi Arabia in exchange for Gulf support. Consequently, the Egyptian regime’s narrative centered on aligning its policies with those of its Gulf backers, leading to a tighter grip on the Palestinian issue.
Egypt perceives Islamist movements, particularly Hamas, as a threat, aligning its anti-Islamist stance with Gulf state interests. Despite Hamas formally distancing itself from the Muslim Brotherhood, Egyptian authorities continue to view the group as a hostile entity. Following the recent Hamas attack, Egypt and the Gulf states began cooperating with Israel to neutralize Hamas, fearing a rise in popular support for armed resistance.
With the shifting political landscape in the U.S. under the Biden administration, new predictions about the aftermath of the conflict in Gaza have emerged. The return of Donald Trump brought back discussions of his controversial “deal of the century,” which had implications for Palestinian displacement. Although Sisi was initially supportive of Trump’s plans, Egypt firmly opposed forced resettlement of Palestinians into its territory, recognizing it as a significant security threat {
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A forced influx of Palestinian refugees into Sinai would drastically change Egypt’s demographic makeup and breed long-term tensions. This displacement could undermine Egypt’s regional standing and contribute to ongoing economic and security difficulties in the already struggling Sinai. The resettlement of refugees poses a sustained risk of creating a pressure point for Egypt amidst an uncertain political future for Sisi.
Amid rising pressure from Gulf allies and a need for domestic stability, speculation arises about Sisi possibly trading acceptance of displacement plans for continued support to maintain his regime. While the Egyptian military generally opposes displacement, political directions may compel it to accept compromises that include limited control over buffer areas without formally endorsing them as lasting solutions.
Given Gaza’s strategic significance to Egypt, any developments—be it armed conflict or reconstruction—will significantly impact its national interests and geopolitical standing. Thus, maintaining influence over Gaza is crucial for Egypt to counterbalance rival powers in the region and safeguard its policy objectives.
The article highlights the evolving dynamics of the Palestinian issue in the context of Egyptian leadership under Sisi. With shifting regional influences from Gulf states and changing U.S. political landscapes, Sisi faces pressures that may compromise the Palestinian cause for the sake of regime survival. The situation reflects Egypt’s intricate balance of maintaining national security while navigating foreign dependencies and potential demographic upheavals in Sinai.
Original Source: www.middleeasteye.net
