The upcoming US-Russia summit in Riyadh will address critical issues like the Ukrainian crisis, Iran’s nuclear program, and Middle East peace. Trump’s strategy may aim for unilateral gains, unsettling European allies, while Russia remains firm on its demands. Achieving a meaningful agreement will require strategic pressure on Russia, amidst concerns that compromise could empower adversarial forces globally.
The upcoming US-Russia summit in Riyadh is poised to impact key geopolitical issues. The agenda will go beyond the Ukrainian crisis, addressing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the Middle East peace process post-Assad, and the role of China in the Gulf. The meeting is also set to discuss global trade routes and security threats, showcasing the complexity of international relations amidst global tensions.
Absences of significant parties like the EU and Canada are notable at this summit. For President Trump, known for his deal-making skills, this presents an opportunity to secure various strategic advantages without sharing them with other stakeholders. Even Ukrainian President Zelensky’s situation has become instrumental to Trump’s strategy.
Trump’s approach suggests that he aims to negotiate various stakes, including Ukraine’s rare earth minerals, and redefine regional power dynamics, potentially benefiting Russia. The Arctic shipping route stands out for him as a strategic advantage that could optimize transit times for global shipping. Nonetheless, this raises alarms among European allies and Ukraine about potential backdoor deals that could empower Russia.
In his past statements, Trump expressed a desire to resolve the Ukraine war swiftly. His former national security advisor, Keith Kellogg, proposed halting military aid to Ukraine unless Ukraine engages in negotiations with Russia, warning that failure to negotiate would lead to increased US military support for Ukraine.
However, Russia appears uninterested in compromise, insisting on demands such as Ukraine’s neutral status and recognition of its territorial claims. Such terms remain unacceptable to the Ukrainian government and its allies. Countries in the Indo-Pacific also fear that a Russian victory could embolden China regarding Taiwan’s future.
Key figures in the US political landscape would likely oppose any deal that empowers Russia, fearing it could strengthen an authoritarian coalition with China, Iran, and others. While Trump’s push for an agreement with Putin is commendable, it must be rooted in meaningful concessions rather than an ephemeral ceasefire.
To negotiate from a position of strength, the US should enhance pressure on Russia. Trump is likely to revamp a maximum pressure strategy similar to the one used against Iran, which had a profound impact on Iran’s economy and military capabilities.
Applying this strategy to Russia might compel Moscow to come to the negotiating table, which currently lacks motivation to negotiate. Furthermore, it could have ramifications for Russia’s allies like China and Iran, given their role in supporting Russia’s military pursuits.
However, Russia’s resilience complicates this dynamic. Despite suffering from sanctions, its economy remains intact, and it continues to leverage its vast resources and alliances effectively. The success of additional sanctions remains questionable, given Russia’s adaptability and ongoing military operations.
For Trump’s administration to forge a lasting resolution, it should pursue a process that prevents Russia from unilaterally dictating peace terms. Such an outcome should balance regional power, creating a neutral status for Ukraine while considering limited autonomy in contested areas.
Achieving a favorable resolution would send a strong signal of US leadership back to the global stage, emphasizing the importance of strategic commitments not just in Europe but on a broader international scale, particularly amidst rising global instability.
The US-Russia summit in Riyadh is set against a backdrop of complex geopolitical challenges, including Ukraine, Iran, and regional security dynamics. Trump’s strategy appears focused on leveraging positions for broader negotiations. However, the effectiveness of sanctions and military aid in influencing Russia remains uncertain. A successful negotiation framework could redefine regional security and reestablish US geopolitical standing globally.
Original Source: www.dailynewsegypt.com
