The article discusses the looming political and social crisis in Cameroon due to President Paul Biya’s declining health and potential succession issues. It emphasizes the need for the US to engage with Cameroon strategically to prevent regional instability, address governance and economic challenges, and counteract rising foreign influence from adversaries like China. Immediate and long-term recommendations are proposed to strengthen US-Cameroon relations.
Cameroon faces potential instability that warrants heightened attention from US foreign policy makers. The nation, positioned at the intersection of Central and West Africa, is experiencing turmoil in political, social, economic, and security aspects. While the US tends to overlook Cameroon, rivals like China are seeking to solidify their influence in the region, further isolating the US.
President Paul Biya, who has held power since 1982 and is now ninety-two, is reportedly in declining health. He remains reclusive, with minimal engagement from foreign officials, as Cameroon grapples with economic struggles and security issues influenced by an experienced but strained military. The upcoming elections in October 2025 prompt uncertainty regarding Cameroon’s leadership post-Biya.
If a crisis emerges following Biya’s potential exit, US involvement could inadvertently exacerbate this instability. Marcel Niat Njifenji, the senate president and Biya’s appointee, is also of advanced age and in poor health, making the transition of power particularly precarious. The ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement, maintaining substantial political dominance, faces internal divisions among opposition figures, raising concerns about political continuity and unity.
A lack of a unifying leadership could spark unrest, destabilizing both the West and Central African regions. Furthermore, such instability could empower violent groups amidst ongoing crises, such as the Anglophone Crisis and Boko Haram threats in neighboring countries. The strategic importance of Cameroon, given its geographical location and economic potential, suggests that US focus should be refocused despite internal challenges.
Historically, US-Cameroon relations have been fraught with tension, stemming from previous electoral controversies and changed foreign aid levels. The relationship suffered when Cameroon felt slighted by US sanctions and reactions to internal governance matters—it viewed these as a disregard for its sovereignty. Although maintaining ties with international actors, Cameroon perceives US engagement as erratic.
The US has substantial economic interests in Cameroon, particularly via strategic ports that facilitate international trade. Despite dealing with persistent corruption, the country holds potential for enhanced partnerships. Numerous factors, including Cameroonian legal issues and past political controversies, pose challenges to establishing fruitful economic relations.
To help navigate this complex environment, immediate and longer-term recommendations are critical. First, establishing a high-level interagency strategy for Cameroon would enhance diplomatic coherence in a potentially volatile situation. This strategy should define US objectives, reinforce engagement with the Cameroonian government during the electoral process, and advocate for improved human rights.
Additionally, broader outreach efforts should involve various opinion leaders, stakeholders, and credible voices rather than relying solely on government-to-government conversations. Fostering bipartisan support in Congress is essential to facilitate informed policy development and response capabilities aimed at stabilizing Cameroon.
Short to medium-term actions include intelligence assessments to understand the country’s situation comprehensively. Additionally, the US should prepare through simulations and realistic scenario planning for a possible political transition following Biya’s presidency. Learning from past mistakes in similar contexts will inform better crisis management strategies.
Finally, the US should not wait for traditional allies to guide its actions in Cameroon. Current global dynamics signal that US interests may diverge from those of allies like France or the UK. Engaging firmly with Cameroon could contribute to regional stability and counteract adversarial influences, ultimately paving the way for a more secure and promising future in Central Africa.
To summarize, US policymakers must take proactive measures to engage with Cameroon amid its impending leadership crisis. The country faces significant challenges due to its political landscape and the potential for instability, which could have regional implications. Implementing immediate and long-term strategic plans will aid in facilitating a positive diplomatic relationship while securing US interests and contributing to Cameroon’s stability.
Original Source: www.atlanticcouncil.org
