The U.S. is pressuring Iraq to restore Kurdish oil exports through Turkiye’s Ceyhan pipeline to offset potential declines in Iranian oil exports. Iraqi officials announced a possible resumption, but unresolved issues and smuggling concerns pose challenges. The situation reflects Iraq’s complicated relations with both the U.S. and Iran amid growing geopolitical tensions.
The U.S. administration is pushing Iraq to resume oil exports from the Kurdistan region through Turkiye’s Ceyhan pipeline. If Iraq fails to comply, it risks facing economic sanctions akin to those imposed on Iran. Reports suggest this pressure has already influenced the Iraqi Oil Minister to announce the resumption of Kurdish oil exports soon.
The revival of Kurdish oil exports aims to compensate for anticipated declines in Iranian oil shipments, which the U.S. intends to eliminate as part of its maximum pressure campaign. The suspension of exports for nearly two years has prevented over 300,000 barrels per day from reaching the global market through Turkiye.
Iraq’s strategic position between Washington and Tehran complicates its response to U.S. sanctions. The U.S. has urged Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani to cut military and economic ties with Iran. Additionally, Iraq’s central bank recently restricted five private banks from accessing U.S. dollars at the request of the U.S. Treasury, tightening controls on trade with Iran.
Despite plans to resume exports, unresolved technical issues may cause delays. Meanwhile, Iran maintains substantial influence in Iraq through Shiite armed groups and political factions, posing challenges for Iraq as U.S. pressure increases. This situation unfolds as Iran faces newfound vulnerabilities due to Israeli actions against its regional allies.
With the Ceyhan pipeline inactive since March 2023, illicit smuggling of Kurdish oil to Iran has intensified through truck routes. U.S. officials are urging Baghdad to address this issue and prevent discounted sales to Iran, emphasizing that Kurdish oil should be exported via Turkiye.
Although resuming Kurdish oil exports could mitigate effects of reduced Iranian exports, it is insufficient to fully replace the lost revenue. Iran’s familiarity with evading U.S. sanctions could allow it to maintain oil sales under the current circumstances. Meanwhile, Turkey ceased pipeline operations following a ruling related to financial liabilities from Kurdish oil trade.
The U.S. is leveraging economic pressure on Iraq to resume Kurdish oil exports through Turkiye, framing it as a critical step to mitigate Iranian oil export declines. Although there are concerns about technical delays and illicit smuggling, the collaboration aims to stabilize regional markets and reduce Iranian influence in Iraq. The context highlights Iraq’s delicate balance between U.S. interests and its complex relationship with Iran.
Original Source: shafaq.com
