Egypt’s diplomatic efforts after the Gaza war have led to some recovery of its interests, though lasting stability is complicated by economic challenges. Cairo’s opposition to Trump’s Gaza plans and its role in facilitating a ceasefire are pivotal steps. Ongoing economic pressure from decreased Suez Canal revenues and inflation may hamper sustained diplomatic success, while uncertainty remains regarding the peace agreements amid shifting regional dynamics.
Following the recent Gaza war, Egypt has successfully salvaged and even rejuvenated several of its strategic interests through diplomatic means, according to former officials. This comes amidst concerns that achieving long-term stability could prove challenging, primarily due to ongoing economic strains. Egypt notably opposed US President Trump’s proposal for the Gaza Strip that aimed to displace 2.3 million Palestinians, instead advocating for a reconstruction plan that prioritizes their presence in the enclave.
Egypt’s efforts aligned with broader Arab objections to Trump’s approach, while simultaneously mitigating the risk of Palestinian militant infiltration into its territories. The tenuous ceasefire brokered between Israel and Palestinian factions is crucial for securing improvements in foreign investor confidence and the resurgence of vessel traffic through the Suez Canal, both vital to Egypt’s economy.
The war significantly impacted Egypt, not only causing humanitarian repercussions—receiving over 115,000 displaced Palestinians—but also affecting its Suez Canal revenues due to shipping disruptions caused by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. The estimated $7 billion loss in canal revenue occurred during a period when Egypt was already grappling with inflation and stringent IMF economic reforms.
Recently, an uptick in shipping through the Suez Canal was noted, as Admiral Osama Rabie, the canal authority chairman, undertakes efforts to attract global shipping companies back to the waterway. Adjustments such as discounted fees for ships and enhancements to repair facilities aim to galvanize canal traffic amid assurances from the Houthis that they won’t target international vessels following a ceasefire.
Despite these positive signals, global shipping companies remain cautious, preferring to closely observe the situation. “While we welcome the increase in shipping, its sustainability hinges on numerous factors,” stated former official Hussein Hareedy, emphasizing the importance of the ceasefire’s longevity given the Houthi threat.
There exists apprehension regarding the Houthis’ stability of their truce, as they have indicated possible retaliation should Israel restart military actions in Gaza. Furthermore, shifts in US-Iran relations under Trump may influence their actions, as inferred by Hareedy.
Former officials noted that the Arab world’s reaction to Trump’s Gaza proposal showcased a changing dynamic, reinforcing alliances among Arab states. Egypt’s role in the reconstruction discussions has elevated President el-Sisi’s standing domestically, yet skepticism remains about Israel’s commitment to uphold peace agreements.
Critically, there’s speculation that Trump’s Gaza strategy aims to distract from Israel’s broader objectives in the West Bank, where settlement activities have escalated, further complicating political discourse in the region. Both officials stress the importance of prioritizing the West Bank agenda in upcoming Arab Summits.
The lack of solidarity tools available to respond to Israeli actions in the West Bank—particularly in contrast to the clear support for Gaza—might hinder Cairo’s ability to exert the same influence. Mr. Hassan explained how Egypt’s geographic and political realities limit its proactive engagement with West Bank issues despite its efforts to address Gaza concerns.
In summary, Egypt’s diplomatic maneuvers post-Gaza war have yielded some gains, but the road to sustained stability faces hurdles from economic challenges and regional security dynamics. The effectiveness of these strategies hinges largely on the constancy of the ceasefire and developments involving Israel’s actions in both Gaza and the West Bank. Engaging effectively with diplomatic efforts while attending to economic pressures will remain central to Egypt’s immediate focus. Despite the recent accomplishments, the future remains uncertain, as the prospect of ongoing conflict or Hamas-related complications could unravel the progress made thus far.
Original Source: www.thenationalnews.com
