Kenya is set to host the RSF’s announcement of a parallel government, posing significant diplomatic challenges. The event, framed to legitimize RSF’s power, tests Kenya’s relations with Sudan amid growing tensions. As the RSF seeks international recognition, Nairobi risks diplomatic fallout with both the RSF and the Sudanese military regime.
Kenya finds itself navigating a complex diplomatic situation as Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), prepares to announce a parallel government from Nairobi. The planned announcement, initially set for Monday but delayed to Tuesday, is framed as the “Political Charter for the Government of Peace and Unity”. This move challenges the military regime led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, based in Port Sudan.
The RSF’s declaration aims to restore a legitimate government overthrown by Islamic movement remnants and militias. The new administration is intended to unite various social and political forces for sustainable peace, representing a significant geopolitical challenge for Kenya, which must manage diplomatic relations with the competing factions.
Kenya has been attempting to recalibrate its diplomatic stance towards Sudan, especially as relations had begun to improve, despite concerns over President William Ruto’s dealings with Hemedti. Following a meeting with President Ruto, Sudan’s Foreign Minister Ali al-Sadiq indicated that Kenya revised its position regarding the Sudanese conflict, declaring that the idea of RSF’s power was over.
However, tensions remain as Kenya ordered the RSF to cancel a planned press conference amid growing Western pressure against Hemedti. The deepening ties between Kenya and the RSF were highlighted by Ruto’s high-profile welcoming of Hemedti at JKIA last January, an event that contrasted sharply with the treatment of al-Burhan, leading to Khartoum’s subsequent protest.
The RSF’s decision to announce its government from Nairobi could be a strategic move to gain international legitimacy. Although gaining a foothold in western Sudan and Darfur, they have yet to be recognized as a governing authority. Using Kenya as a base symbolizes an attempt to establish themselves as political contenders rather than mere militia forces.
Should this declaration gain traction, it puts Kenya in a precarious situation as it risks igniting disputes with al-Burhan’s regime, despite earlier indications of a diplomatic thaw. The likelihood of escalation could jeopardize any diplomatic progress made, especially as Ethiopia and the African Union watch closely.
Kenya must now balance its regional diplomatic goals with the potential for diplomatic fallout. By facilitating the RSF’s proclamation on its territory, Kenya could sour relations with Port Sudan and invite scrutiny from international stakeholders, particularly the U.S., which has imposed sanctions on key RSF figures. The African Union’s stance may also come under review as the RSF’s influence grows.
Kenya’s predicament illustrates a delicate dance in regional diplomacy, where geopolitical stakes and alliances fluctuate rapidly, presenting numerous challenges moving forward. Hostility or support may hinge on this high-stakes diplomatic engagement with RSF leadership from Nairobi.
Kenya’s diplomatic situation is increasingly complex due to the impending declaration of a parallel government by the RSF from Nairobi. This development poses challenges to Kenya’s relationships with both the RSF and al-Burhan’s government, complicating an already fragile diplomatic landscape. With significant international scrutiny likely, Kenya must navigate these delicate waters carefully to maintain regional stability without inciting further conflict.
Original Source: eastleighvoice.co.ke
