The ceasefires with Hamas and Hezbollah have temporarily stabilized the situation for Israel. Key questions include the return of hostages, management of Gaza after a potential military withdrawal, and the long-term containment of Hezbollah. Ultimately, sustaining these ceasefires and ensuring reduced threats will require strategic negotiations and effective military strategies.
The ceasefires involving Hamas and Hezbollah have introduced temporary stability in the region, with a month of relative calm from Gaza and almost three months from Lebanon. However, the critical question remains whether these ceasefires can evolve into a sustained peace that enhances Israel’s long-term security after the October 2023 hostilities.
As of now, Israel has successfully secured the return of 19 out of 33 hostages from Hamas in the first phase of the ceasefire, but the essential issue is the feasibility of an extension into a second phase.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah has refrained from attacks on Israel and has been unable to mobilize significant forces. The primary concern for Israel is whether it can effectively prevent Hezbollah from rearming once Israeli troops pull back from southern Lebanon.
For many Israelis, the return of hostages is ethically vital and strategically significant for maintaining public trust in the military’s role in protecting citizens. Long-term considerations about Hamas revolve around whether Israel can establish a reliable governance alternative to Hamas in Gaza.
There are various opinions in Israel regarding the management of Gaza. Some speculate that facilitating the voluntary exit of Gaza’s Palestinian population could lead to normalization efforts involving Saudi Arabia and assistance from Egypt and the UAE, all aimed at replacing Hamas.
Others argue that any progress would necessitate some involvement from the Palestinian Authority in governance. Hamas has shown some willingness to relinquish formal control, potentially retaining its weapon stockpile and political influence, but a convergence of views on Gaza’s future remains uncertain.
Israel may contemplate continued military presence in Gaza, specifically to secure certain corridors and areas, while also facing challenges if Hamas combatants conceal weapons among civilians. The prospect of renewing military operations raises questions about the effectiveness of physically dismantling Hamas.
Israel faces a strategic quandary: it needs to negotiate with Hamas and regional entities for a viable governance structure in Gaza moving forward. The short-term future will reveal whether Israel can secure concessions from Hamas regarding post-war governance, especially in light of recent ceasefire conditions.
The situation with Hezbollah presents a more complex challenge, with no comprehensive solution to neutralize its threat against Israel. The objectives of Israel’s military actions in Lebanon include limiting Hezbollah’s weaponry and pressuring the group into a ceasefire that might allow an abandonment of southern Lebanon.
Although IDF operations have intensified recently, indications suggest an impending withdrawal from southern Lebanon. This move raises concerns about allowing Hezbollah to gradually return to the region, posing ongoing risks to Israeli security, particularly with Hezbollah’s attempts to resupply its arsenal through routes involving Iranian support.
The pivotal inquiries remain: can both ceasefires endure, and will the threats from Hamas and Hezbollah diminish compared to pre-October 2023? The unfolding situation will define the broader security landscape for Israel moving forward, as all actors assess their strategies based on initial ceasefire outcomes.
The future of the ceasefires between Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah remains uncertain, hinging on negotiations and military strategies. While short-term stability has been achieved, long-term security depends on managing governance in Gaza and Hezbollah’s rearming possibilities. Israel’s ability to navigate these challenges effectively will be crucial for its defense and regional stability in the coming years.
Original Source: www.jpost.com
