Raila Odinga’s attempt to secure the AUC leadership was thwarted by regional disunity, strong bloc politics against him, and a late shift of support from SADC, leading to the election victory of Djibouti’s Mahamoud Ali Youssouf. Initial voting gave Odinga an early lead, but shifting alliances and a disunited EAC worked against him. The outcome has raised questions about future candidacies and the need for better diplomatic management.
Kenya’s pursuit of the African Union Commission (AUC) leadership ended poorly as regional divisions, a united Francophone bloc, and late support from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) collectively undermined former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s chances. Initially, Odinga led early rounds of voting, achieving 20 votes in the first round and 22 in the second. However, Djibouti’s Mahamoud Ali Youssouf overtook him in the third round, eventually securing 33 votes necessary for victory after six rounds of ballots.
The shifting allegiances among member states increasingly influenced the election outcome, creating a challenge for Kenya. President William Ruto’s role in East African Community (EAC) negotiations, particularly concerning the DRC conflict, strained perceptions and hindered Odinga’s candidacy. As DRC and Somalia showed reluctance to support Kenya, disunity within the EAC played a critical role as Kenyatta’s early support weakened.
Before elections, Kenya faced backlash over its failure to effectively mediate the DRC crisis, leading to suspicions of bias toward Rwanda. This sentiment was echoed by former ambassador Ngovi Kitau, highlighting that without intervention from SADC, Kenya’s bid was severely compromised. SADC’s endorsement for Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato and their final decision to support Youssouf in later rounds positioned them as significant players.
There were indications of a diplomatic error on Kenya’s part, with a contentious statement made by Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary, Korir Sing’oei, against SADC days before the election. In addition to the SADC factor, the historical influence of Francophone countries played a crucial role, as they preferred Youssouf, particularly after Randriamandrato withdrew.
Experts observed that Odinga faced formidable competition against the combined strength of Francophone and Muslim states within the AU. International Relations professor Gilbert Khadiagala stressed the need for Kenya to nominate a younger candidate with better linguistic versatility for future bids, indicating that Odinga was not the most competent candidate for this specific competition.
Furthermore, Kenya’s foreign policy conflicts, particularly with North African states over issues like Sahrawi and relations with Morocco, also negatively impacted Odinga’s prospects. The handling of sensitive matters regarding Palestine, such as supporting Israel’s recognition, reinforced existing tensions with members of the AU and fueled dissent.
Despite the setbacks, Odinga graciously conceded defeat while congratulating Youssouf on his victory, emphasizing the importance of democratic processes in Africa. President Ruto similarly expressed gratitude for consideration and support during the campaign, acknowledging that the fight for continental leadership continues. Deputy President Kithure Kindiki noted that Kenya still has strong contenders and will learn from this experience to improve future candidacies.
The AUC elections required a two-thirds majority from the 49 eligible member states, but several nations were absent due to sanctions. The summit held in Ethiopia called for calm and dialogue to resolve ongoing regional conflicts, with emphasis placed on addressing the DRC crisis. Outgoing AUC chairperson Moussa Faki praised leadership efforts aimed at AU reforms.
Raila Odinga’s bid for the AUC leadership was hindered by regional disunity, which was exacerbated by a collaborative thrust from supportive blocs such as SADC and the influence of Francophone states, ensuring Djibouti’s Mahamoud Ali Youssouf’s victory. Compounded by diplomatic missteps and conflicting foreign policies, Kenyan support dwindled, underscoring the need for strategic reforms in future candidacies. Odinga’s concession reflects a commitment to ongoing democratic principles essential for Africa’s collective future.
Original Source: www.thecitizen.co.tz
