Rafic Hariri’s assassination on February 14, 2005, retains significant political implications in Lebanon and the Middle East, two decades later. The event sparked widespread political upheaval and led to changes in regional power dynamics, particularly concerning Hezbollah and Iran. Recent political shifts in Lebanon indicate a movement toward reform while acknowledging persistent challenges related to Hezbollah’s influence and military capabilities.
February 14, 2005, is ingrained in the memories of many Lebanese as the day former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri was assassinated in Beirut. Two decades later, the repercussions of this car-bomb attack continue to resonate in Lebanon and throughout the Middle East. This anniversary arrives at a critical moment for Lebanon, especially following the recent 15-month conflict between Israel and Hamas that altered regional dynamics.
The aftermath of Hariri’s assassination launched Lebanon into a turbulent era of political crises, violence, and instability, nearly reigniting civil war as the country struggled to recover from a previous 15-year internal conflict that concluded in 1990. A UN investigation linked the assassination to several Hezbollah members, though the organization faced no formal culpability according to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which found insufficient evidence against its leadership.
Mazen Hayek, a media advisor, stated, “The 20th anniversary feels different. For us, it’s a kind of divine closure – a realization that what the tribunal failed to achieve, time and events eventually did.” The killing sparked widespread protests against Syria’s military presence in Lebanon, influencing the withdrawal of Syrian troops in April 2005. However, Hezbollah later consolidated power in the resulting political vacuum.
Lebanese MP Samy Gemayel reflected on the compromises that allowed Hezbollah to operate as an armed faction during that tumultuous time, indicating that the political landscape is shifting; Hezbollah’s political dominance is diminishing, especially following the recent election of Joseph Aoun as President and Nawaf Salam as Prime Minister. This change marks a significant challenge to Hezbollah’s historically unassailable position.
The newly formed Lebanese government signals a renewed engagement from Arab nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which had distanced themselves due to Iranian influence. US opposition to Hezbollah remains firm, evident in Deputy Special Envoy Morgan Ortagus’s statements regarding the group’s role in the new cabinet as a “red line.” Hezbollah and its ally Amal prevented a blocking third in the cabinet, diminishing their veto powers.
Despite a perceived weakening, analysts caution that Hezbollah retains substantial military capabilities and influence within Lebanon. Nicholas Blanford of the Atlantic Council noted the group has lost some deterrence against Israel but still maintains a robust local presence. Amal Mudallali emphasized the group’s potential for political resurgence, as its domestic influence persists.
The shifting regional landscape sees Iran’s influence wane, particularly after its unsuccessful provocations against Israel. The decrease in Hezbollah’s deterrent capacity against Israel complicates Iran’s defense strategy and raises concerns about its nuclear facilities’ vulnerability to external threats. Blanford highlighted the significant investments Iran made in building Hezbollah to challenge Israel.
Rafic Hariri’s efforts to enhance Lebanese sovereignty and limit foreign intervention—a point leading to his assassination—remain vital in contemporary discourse. The current Palestinian leadership’s future is under observation, as Syria faces pressures to rebuild and stabilize amidst internal and regional challenges.
The 20th anniversary of Rafic Hariri’s assassination continues to impact Lebanon and the Middle East significantly. While Hezbollah’s political dominance has declined, the group remains a powerful force. The evolving political dynamics in Lebanon, marked by new leadership and engagement from Arab states, hint at potential reform and recovery. However, underlying challenges—including Hezbollah’s military capabilities and Iran’s regional influence—present ongoing complexities.
Original Source: www.thenationalnews.com
