Ecuador’s February elections revealed competitive results, with leftist candidate Luisa Gonzalez positioned to potentially win the runoff against incumbent Daniel Noboa. The election outcome raises concerns for U.S. interests, as a Gonzalez victory could shift Ecuador towards leftist policies reminiscent of former president Correa. Indigenous support and the context of rising violence are pivotal factors in shaping the electoral landscape.
The February 9 election results in Ecuador signal potential trouble for the U.S. if the leftist party, closely allied with former president Rafael Correa, wins the upcoming runoff on April 13. The center-right candidate, Daniel Noboa, received 44.2% of the vote, while Correa-backed Luisa Gonzalez garnered 43.9%, setting up a competitive runoff.
Leonidas Iza, representing the leftist Pachakutik party, acquired 5.3% of the votes, and his supporters are now pivotal in determining the election outcome. Given the stakes, if Gonzalez wins, the U.S. could witness a shift toward leftist policies reminiscent of Correa’s administration, especially as Gonzalez is a staunch supporter of Correa.
Former Ecuadoran president Jamil Mahuad stated that Gonzalez aligns with the ‘socialism of the 21st century’ movement, echoing sentiments from Venezuela and Cuba. Many believe she would foster closer ties with the BRICS nations led by China and Russia, which is concerning for U.S. interests in the region.
Correa, who led from 2007 to 2017, is seen as antagonistic towards the U.S. due to past grievances, including his actions that curtailed U.S. anti-narcotics efforts in Ecuador. His “universal citizenship” law reportedly permitted organized crime leaders to operate within the country, further complicating U.S.-Ecuador relations.
Political analyst Santiago Basabe indicated that Gonzalez is favored to win due to the consolidation of votes expected from the leftist Pachakutik party, as a large portion of their electorate may support her. Past elections suggest that traditional ideological divisions may not significantly influence Pachakutik voters, as they prioritize cultural identity over party affiliation.
Daniel Noboa faces challenges ahead, particularly concerning escalating drug-related violence and an ongoing energy crisis that needs urgent attention. For him to secure re-election, focusing on public safety and attracting indigenous voters is crucial. Diplomatic ties with the U.S. will also play a key role in enhancing his campaign.
Ecuadorians recall Correa’s economic success tied to high oil prices, posing a risk for Noboa, as nostalgia for Correa’s presidency could sway public support toward Gonzalez. However, Correa’s history of corruption and the legacies of violent crime are essential considerations in this election.
Should Gonzalez succeed, Ecuador would likely become a significant concern for the U.S., straining relations and complicating regional dynamics as the country may align more closely with opposing forces.
Stay tuned for the “Oppenheimer Presenta” TV program airing Sundays at 9 PM E.T. on CNN en Español, and follow my blog for further insights on this evolving situation.
The outcome of Ecuador’s upcoming runoff election is crucial, with the potential for a leftist win that aligns with Rafael Correa’s populist policies. Such a victory poses challenges for U.S. interests and could tilt Ecuador towards alliances with adversarial nations like China and Russia. Voter sentiment and the influence of indigenous and leftist factions are key elements to watch in the election dynamics.
Original Source: www.miamiherald.com
