Trump’s executive order ends Iraq’s waiver for Iranian gas imports, raising concerns over an impending electricity crisis. Experts predict worsening power shortages may destabilize Iraq’s political landscape and provoke public unrest. The U.S. aims to increase pressure on Iran while proposing alternatives for Iraq’s energy needs.
On Wednesday, President Trump signed an executive order ending the waiver allowing Iraq to import gas from Iran for electricity generation. Experts warn that this policy could exacerbate Iraq’s ongoing electricity shortages, negatively impacting the nation’s fragile political and economic stability. The order is part of a broader strategy to apply maximum pressure on Iran, including tightening sanctions and isolating Tehran diplomatically.
This development affects Iraq’s energy and financial systems, with the Secretary of State directed to revoke waivers, block Iranian oil exports, and impede Iran’s use of Iraq’s financial infrastructure. To enforce these sanctions, the order also focuses on restricting movements of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its affiliates outside Iran, which may include pro-Iran militias operating in Iraq.
Experts, including energy analyst Harry Istepanian, have already signaled potential shortages for the upcoming summer due to Iran’s reduced ability to supply the agreed 50-55 million cubic meters of gas per day. Istepanian suggests potential solutions such as joining Russia’s Mir payment system and accelerating local gas project developments to mitigate this issue, as well as establishing a gas swap agreement with Kazakhstan.
The anticipated electricity crisis could lead to further unrest in Iraq, especially in the southern regions. The prolonged power shortages might trigger protests or riots, emphasizing the U.S. government’s need to consider the broader implications of isolating Iran, which could destabilize the entire region.
In response to the electricity crisis, Iraqi officials are seeking to expand power generation with plans to add 35,000 megawatts through steam and gas plants. This effort requires international investment support, with companies like GE and Siemens expected to play crucial roles in bridging Iraq’s energy gap and ensuring stable electricity supplies over the next four-to-five years.
Trump’s order also impacts the Kurdistan region, compelling authorities to prevent oil smuggling to Iran or face U.S. sanctions. Following this directive, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is working to restart oil exports with international oil companies via Iraq’s State Organization for Marketing of Oil after a budget law amendment increased compensation for oil production.
Iraq has long relied on Iranian gas imports to address its energy shortages, which are compounded by ongoing political and economic instability. The U.S. has been strategically pressing Iran to curb its regional influence, particularly by tightening sanctions affecting Iran’s funding routes. Trump’s recent executive order signifies a shift in U.S. policy that complicates Iraq’s energy situation, risking further instability as the country approaches a hot summer with rising electricity demands.
In summary, the cessation of Iraq’s waiver for Iranian gas imports by the Trump administration could lead to serious electricity shortages and potential civil unrest in Iraq. As experts suggest various solutions to this looming crisis, the overarching implications of further isolating Iran remain a concern for both Iraqi stability and regional security.
Original Source: www.newarab.com
