Donald Trump’s return to the presidency poses significant challenges for Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, whose regime relies on external support. Trump’s demands regarding the Gaza refugee crisis threaten Sisi’s stability, exacerbated by ongoing economic difficulties in Egypt. The geopolitical landscape necessitates careful maneuvering from Sisi to protect Egypt’s interests and maintain sovereignty in the face of U.S. pressures and regional dynamics.
The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency is causing alarm in Cairo, particularly for President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Although previously dubbed Trump’s “favorite dictator,” Sisi’s relationship with the Trump administration has historically been complex and often harmful to Egypt’s interests. Trump’s policies, coupled with his unpredictable nature, have undermined Sisi’s regime, which relies heavily on external support.
Within just days of Trump’s return, worries intensified as he urged Egypt and Jordan to absorb over a million refugees from Gaza, a demand that could destabilize Sisi’s governance. Egypt’s official response was stern, avoiding direct mention of Trump, reflecting a united front among Egyptian citizens against the pressure.
Initially, Sisi viewed Trump’s first term optimistically, hoping to leverage their relationship for regional negotiations, including a controversial deal transferring sovereignty over islands to Saudi Arabia. However, Trump’s insistence on expedited transfers of these territories revealed the limitations of their alliance, as Sisi aimed to delay the deal indefinitely.
During Trump’s first term, Egypt saw little improvement in financial aid or weapons deals, a significant concern as the country’s economic stability has worsened due to various crises. Trump’s approach toward human rights has also complicated Sisi’s regime, as it faced pressure to release political prisoners and curb abuses.
In contrast, the Biden administration provided a more favorable environment for Sisi, facilitating substantial financial assistance and easing human rights pressures. This support allowed Sisi to maintain control over contentious regional issues while weathering the ongoing crises affecting Egypt’s economy.
The dynamics between the United States and Egypt, particularly under Trump, have significant historical context. Trump’s term was characterized by strategic uncertainty that complicated Egypt’s political landscape. The return of Trump poses renewed risks for Sisi’s administration, which is grappling with internal challenges and the pressures of regional geopolitics, especially regarding the Palestinian issue and relationships with Gulf states. Historically, Sisi has navigated a complex relationship with both regional players and international allies. As the geopolitical landscape shifts, Sisi’s regime must adapt to the unpredictability of U.S. policies under Trump, which could threaten Egyptian sovereignty and stability. The ongoing economic crises further amplify this precarious situation, emphasizing the need for strategic recalibrations from Egypt’s leadership.
In summary, Sisi’s regime faces formidable challenges as Trump resumes power, threatening Egypt’s precarious balance of political stability and external pressures. The demands for refugee resettlement signify a potential crisis for Sisi’s administration, which has grown increasingly dependent on foreign support amidst economic instability. The outcome of this geopolitical maneuvering will hinge on Egypt’s ability to navigate Trump’s ambitions while preserving its national interests amid rising domestic pressures and external demands.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
