As displaced Lebanese return to the south, they confront devastation from a prolonged conflict that has reshaped Hezbollah’s power dynamics. The new Lebanese president’s election and reforms threaten Hezbollah’s influence, while the group’s military capacity and legitimacy are in question following heavy losses. The decision for Hezbollah’s status may depend on Iranian strategies and potential negotiations in a transformed Middle East landscape.
On January 26, a significant number of displaced Lebanese attempted to return to their homes in southern Lebanon, celebrating with Hezbollah flags and revolutionary music. However, many discovered their homes were destroyed after prolonged conflict, lamenting the losses and honoring their late leader, Hassan Nasrallah. This date coincided with the end of a ceasefire deadline requiring Hezbollah to withdraw from southern Lebanon as Israeli forces were expected to pull out, a situation contested by both parties.
The longstanding dominance of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon has been challenged. While the group has historically maintained power through military strength and significant political influence, recent conflict escalations, particularly since October 2023, have impacted its position. Hezbollah’s military capabilities faced significant setbacks due to targeted Israeli actions that led to substantial casualties, including pivotal leadership losses.
After years of political deadlock, Lebanon elected a new president, Joseph Aoun, who has positioned himself favorably with the U.S. This electoral development occurred against Hezbollah’s weakening influence, allowing the government to move forward without the group’s traditional obstruction. Aoun appointed a prime minister who is not aligned with Hezbollah, signaling further shifts in Lebanon’s political landscape.
Despite the degradation of its support base and infrastructure, Hezbollah attempts to maintain its narrative of victory, though community destruction exceeding $3 billion raises concerns among its followers. Historical patterns suggest that prolonged hardship may shift public sentiment, placing blame on Hezbollah rather than the government or Israel. The group is now working to mitigate potential discontent among its supporters.
Any push against Hezbollah carries inherent risks due to its military capabilities. Recent provocations included youth displaying Hezbollah symbols in non-Shia regions, prompting confrontations. Observers note that Hezbollah’s implicit threat of violence remains a key element of its power dynamics within the deeply fractured sectarian society of Lebanon.
Lebanon’s new leadership is under increasing pressure to implement reforms and restore stability to combat pervasive corruption and dysfunction. Aoun’s commitment to rebuild government institutions and address military control foreshadows scrutiny on Hezbollah’s armed status, although he did not mention the group directly.
Ultimately, the power and future of Hezbollah may hinge on Iran’s strategic decisions, particularly related to its regional military collaborations and the Axis of Resistance. However, change in Hezbollah’s military status, whether via disarmament or adjustment of its role, could emerge from shifts in diplomacy with Western powers regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
The changing landscape within Lebanon and regional tensions may provide opportunities for reform and restructuring of power dynamics, making Hezbollah’s overarching influence uncertain. As frustrations mount, there is little desire among the Lebanese for resilience narratives, with many yearning for a return to normalcy in governance and their daily lives.
Hezbollah has emerged as a powerful entity in Lebanese politics and military strategy, supported by Iran. Historically, it capitalized on a fragmented political atmosphere, using violence as leverage. Recent conflicts, especially with Israel, have severely impacted its structure, leading to significant losses and the emergence of a new Lebanese president, who may threaten its status. The underlying economic crisis in Lebanon complicates public perception and Hezbollah’s social contracts, prompting questions about its future role and legitimacy.
The fate of Hezbollah is at a critical juncture, challenged by internal pressures and external geopolitical shifts. The organization’s ability to adapt post-conflict remains in question as the Lebanese government seeks to assert control and reform. The dynamics of power concerning Iran’s relationship with Hezbollah will significantly influence the group’s future trajectory in Lebanon and the broader Middle East.
Original Source: www.bbc.com
