The U.S.-Pakistan relationship, historically influenced by Pakistan’s strategic role, faces uncertainty amid political shifts in both nations. Trump’s presidency may diminish attention towards Pakistan, focusing instead on immigration and U.S.-China competition. Domestic instability in Pakistan and a potential pivot towards closer ties with China complicate future cooperation. Legislation targeting Pakistan’s status as a major non-NATO ally threatens further strain amidst Trump’s assertive foreign policy approach.
The US-Pakistan relationship has fluctuated over the past 77 years, particularly influenced by Pakistan’s strategic location. This relationship peaked during the War on Terror, despite challenges faced during the Trump administration’s dealings with Imran Khan. The US and Pakistan collaborated to manage the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, showcasing a high point in cooperation despite ensuing complexities post-Trump’s presidency.
Since Trump’s last term, both nations have undergone significant changes. Trump’s return comes with high expectations but is shadowed by his legacy concerns. The US political landscape remains polarized, making it difficult for foreign relations, including with Pakistan, to stabilize amidst various domestic issues.
In Pakistan, political dynamics are unstable, with a hybrid governance structure lacking popular support. Allegations of electoral impropriety and severe economic strife augment the government’s predicament. This environment poses risks of increased sectarianism and the revival of secessionist movements, complicating bilateral relations further.
Legislation proposed by Rep. Andy Biggs to revoke Pakistan’s status as a major non-NATO ally signals potential deterioration in relations. Biggs represents a faction within the Republican Party resistant to bipartisan policies, coinciding with the Trump administration’s prevailing hardline regarding international engagement. This shift challenges long-standing diplomatic ties between the US and Pakistan.
Given the limited focus on Pakistan in Trump’s foreign policy, priority will likely be assigned elsewhere, focusing instead on immigration and U.S.-China competition. Trump’s administration expressed disinterest in non-conflict related commitments, potentially sidelining Pakistan unless significant geopolitical interest emerges in South Asia.
The Biden administration’s period saw downgrading relations, illustrated by a lack of high-level meetings with Pakistani leaders. The shift is compounded by declining Pakistan’s integration into broader U.S. strategic initiatives, with concerns over internal sectarian issues stalling collaborative advancements under Biden. Trump’s future policy is likely to replicate these trends by emphasizing transactional dealings over established partnerships.
Despite ongoing intelligence-shared interests, any military or humanitarian support is expected to taper under Trump’s leadership. U.S. skepticism toward climate initiatives coincides with an unwillingness to engage in non-strategic dialogues, underscoring a prospective decline in actionable cooperation between Washington and Islamabad.
The calculus of U.S.-China dynamics plays a significant role in Trump’s approach to foreign policy. Moving closer to China by Pakistan may antagonize the U.S. administration, resulting in counterproductive shifts in bilateral relations. Limited cooperation may propel Pakistan into deeper alignment with China as a strategic alternative if U.S. interests continue to wane.
The evolving relationship between the United States and Pakistan is marked by historical fluctuations significantly influenced by geopolitical events. Initially, Pakistan aligned closely with U.S. interests during the Cold War and the War on Terror, receiving substantial military and diplomatic support. However, post-9/11 engagements and subsequent developments reveal a complicated and increasingly transactional partnership that struggles against domestic political changes in both nations.
The future of U.S.-Pakistan relations appears tenuous under Trump’s upcoming administration. Absence of substantial engagement from the U.S. and a continued shift toward prioritizing relationships with Gulf states and the Indo-Pacific may diminish Pakistan’s role. Increasing alignment with China could emerge as Pakistan’s strategic response to a lack of serious U.S. commitment. The evolving political landscapes of both countries necessitate cautious foresight into the trajectory of their partnership.
Original Source: www.ndtv.com
