The BCRA’s REM estimates a January CPI of 2.3% and a 2024 inflation forecast of 23.2%. Currency exchange rates predict US$ 1 = AR$ 1,201, with slower peso devaluation. GDP is expected to grow by 1% in Q1 2025, and unemployment should decrease to 6.8%. Foreign trade forecasts show exports at US$ 83.126 billion and imports at US$ 69.1 billion.
The Argentine Central Bank (BCRA) released its monthly Market Expectations Outlook (REM) on Thursday, predicting that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January would be 2.3%, slightly lower than last month’s expectation of 2.5%. This forecast, generated by leading economists, comes ahead of the National Institute of Statistics and Census (Indec) officially releasing the CPI figures.
Experts from over 40 consulting firms forecast that Argentina’s inflation for 2024 will reach 23.2%, which is 2.7 percentage points lower than previous REM estimates. The REM also projected monthly inflation rates for early 2025, with February at 2.1%, March at 2%, April at 1.9%, May at 1.8%, June at 1.7%, and July at 1.6%.
In terms of currency, the expected exchange rate is US$ 1 = AR$ 1,201. The BCRA has initiated a slower devaluation strategy for the official exchange rate, adjusting it to 1% per month. Consequently, projections for the peso’s value against the dollar are set at AR$ 1,054.5 for February and AR$ 1,077.5 for April, reflecting declines from previous forecasts.
The outlook indicates an anticipated GDP increase of 1% in the first quarter of 2025, with an overall growth of 4.6% for the year. Additionally, unemployment is projected to drop to 6.8% of the Economically Active Population by the end of 2025, showing slight improvement from the 7% rate in 2024.
For foreign trade, the panel expects FOB exports to reach US$ 83.126 billion, while imports are projected at US$ 69.1 billion. These figures represent an important aspect of Argentina’s economic landscape in the forecast period.
The report from the Argentine Central Bank (BCRA) offers insights into economic expectations based on expert analysis of consumer price trends, currency valuation, GDP growth, and employment rates. The BCRA’s forecasts play a critical role in shaping financial and economic planning in Argentina, as they reflect collective views from leading economists and consulting firms on inflation dynamics and market behavior. Understanding these predictions is vital for both policymakers and businesses operating within the Argentine economy.
The BCRA’s latest REM report projects a January CPI of 2.3%, suggesting a slight decrease from prior predictions and indicating a broader trend of moderated inflation expectations for 2024. The projected exchange rates, GDP growth, employment figures, and trade balances reflect cautious optimism for the Argentine economy moving forward. These insights are crucial for stakeholders making strategic decisions in the financial and economic sectors.
Original Source: en.mercopress.com
