Turkey is actively redefining Syria’s future post-Assad by leveraging its influence over Syrian rebels and seeking a government model that reflects its ideological interests. The Kurdish issue poses challenges, but Turkey is positioned for economic engagement in reconstruction efforts. The EU’s role remains limited, complicating coordination over Kurdish governance and overall policy direction in Syria.
Turkey has not directly orchestrated the fall of President Bashar al-Assad but is leveraging the aftermath to reshape Syria according to its interests, particularly concerning the Kurdish population. Following significant military success by Syrian rebels supported indirectly by Turkey, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan suggested forthcoming progress regarding Syria. By establishing influence over the transitional governance in Syria, Turkey aims to ensure its ideological and economic interests are reflected in the new political landscape.
The role of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a key Syrian rebel faction, has been significant in forming this pro-Turkish governance structure. While not a direct proxy, HTS has maintained a cooperative relationship with Turkey, driven by shared interests in northern Syria, particularly in the strategically important Idlib region. As millions depend on Turkish support for aid and security, Ankara has garnered considerable influence over HTS and its leadership, allowing Turkey to promote a governance model aligned with its own values.
Turkey’s vision for Syria includes establishing a government that promotes conservative values while also being inclusive of various ethnic and religious groups, including Kurds and Druze. Although there are concerns regarding the Islamist tendencies of HTS and its leadership, Turkey has encouraged moderation within the group as a means to facilitate stability and avoid international isolation. Ankara desires a credible Syrian government that can effectively govern while garnering international support.
Economically, Turkey seeks to capitalize on reconstruction efforts in Syria post-Assad. Turkey’s construction industry stands to benefit significantly, especially as the international community shows signs of easing sanctions against Syria. Erdogan has directed Turkish ministries to prepare for rebuilding infrastructure in Syria, emphasizing Turkey’s role as a central player in the country’s recovery and a potential model for governance.
However, the ongoing Kurdish issue remains a contentious point in Turkey’s approach to Syria. Turkey fears autonomous Kurdish governance in northern Syria could bolster separatist sentiments within its borders. The Turkish government opposes the current structure of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), linking them to the PKK, which is deemed a terrorist organization by Turkey and the U.S. Negotiations about the future governance model in Syria must address the Kurdish question for long-term stability.
Additionally, the European Union has vested interests in Syria, particularly concerning migration and combating extremism but struggles to exert direct influence. Turkey is often seen as the main actor in facilitating political and economic developments in Syria. Divergence in opinions about Kurdish governance could complicate relations, as many regional actors favor a robust Kurdish entity. Ultimately, the EU’s mandate may necessitate a supporting role, allowing Turkey to take a leading position in shaping Syria’s future while balancing various interests within the region.
The article discusses the evolving role of Turkey in reshaping Syria following the recent regime change associated with Assad’s decline. Turkey’s President Erdogan is seeking to assert influence over the new Syrian government that aligns with Ankara’s ideological stances while managing the important and volatile Kurdish question, which poses both regional and domestic challenges. The potential for economic engagement and reconstruction efforts following the Assad regime’s loss is also highlighted, alongside the complex dynamics involving international actors, including the EU.
Overall, Turkey is strategically positioned to influence Syria’s future governance and economic recovery post-Assad. Its relationships with powerful groups like HTS and its stance on Kurdish autonomy will significantly shape outcomes. While Turkey aims to establish a conservative yet inclusive governance model, the interaction of diverse interests among the Kurdish population and international stakeholders like the EU remains a critical factor in determining the stability of Syria moving forward.
Original Source: ecfr.eu
