A new study forecasts that by 2050, climate change may reduce suitable cocoa-growing areas in West and Central Africa by 50%, significantly impacting global cocoa production concentrated in Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon. The research utilized the CASEJ crop model to assess how temperature and rainfall changes affect cocoa yields and highlighted the need for sustainable adaptation strategies to combat potential agricultural and environmental challenges.
A recent study indicates that climate change is poised to significantly impact cocoa production in West and Central Africa, which produces over 70% of the world’s cocoa. Conducted in major cocoa-producing nations—Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon—the research found that by 2050, suitable coco-growing regions could shrink by 50%. The study utilized the CASEJ crop model to predict cocoa growth under varying climate scenarios, assessing risks related to temperature and rainfall variations.
The researchers simulated cocoa yields under different climate scenarios, revealing that some areas are becoming unsuitable for cocoa farming, while others could benefit. The northern regions of Ivory Coast and Ghana are projected to see a yield reduction of 12%, with Nigeria following at 10%, and Cameroon at 2%. This shift indicates that suitable Cocoa production areas may migrate eastwards, impacting local ecosystems, especially in Cameroon where forests may be threatened by increasing cocoa cultivation.
The study emphasizes the need to manage cocoa adaptation to climate change while preventing deforestation from cocoa expansion. The models leverage extensive knowledge of cocoa crop physiology alongside anticipated climate shifts, yet uncertainties remain, particularly concerning the effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, which may affect drought resilience and photosynthesis.
Ongoing research is vital to understand the effects of warming on cocoa flowering and pests, and it is crucial to extend these studies to other crops. A deeper understanding will help agriculture adapt to future climate challenges, ensuring sustainable practices and preserving biodiversity in vulnerable regions.
Climate change is increasingly recognized as a critical factor influencing agricultural production, especially in tropical regions dependent on climatic conditions. Cocoa, primarily grown in West and Central Africa, is highly sensitive to these changes. The idiosyncratic behaviors of cocoa plants in response to temperature and rainfall variations could redefine global cocoa production landscapes. Given that over half of global cocoa production originates from a few regions, understanding these projected shifts is essential for mitigating potential socio-economic impacts on cocoa-producing countries.
The study reveals alarming projections for cocoa farming in West and Central Africa due to climate change, forecasting a potential 50% reduction in suitable areas by 2050. With significant yield losses expected in the northern cocoa zones of Ivory Coast and Ghana, the consequent shifts in production could adversely affect biodiversity, especially in countries like Cameroon. Sustainable agricultural practices and further research are crucial to navigate these impending challenges and protect the ecosystem from intensified cocoa cultivation pressures.
Original Source: www.downtoearth.org.in
