The RSF in Sudan is experiencing declines due to tactical missteps, resource shortages, and internal divisions. The Army has regained significant ground, re-established military capability, and adapted to the ongoing conflict. The RSF’s strategy has shifted to targeting civilians, reflecting the complex dynamics of the war. Key contests, particularly for El-Fasher, could determine future territorial and political outcomes.
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of Sudan are facing significant setbacks against the Army, attributed to tactical errors, internal conflicts, and supply shortages. Analysts highlight that the RSF initially gained an advantage in the conflict, which has now spanned nearly two years and taken tens of thousands of lives, but its weaknesses are now becoming apparent.
Recent advances by the Army have included recapturing Wad Madani, the capital of Al-Jazira State, and breaking RSF sieges on key military installations in Khartoum. This resurgence follows a period where the Army was unprepared, enabling them to restructure and reinforce their military capabilities, notably by revamping recruitment and redeploying their Special Operations Forces.
The RSF has overextended its resources while trying to maintain control over Darfur and expand into central and eastern regions of Sudan. A significant geographical gap exists between RSF strongholds and Khartoum, complicating resupply missions and making logistics vulnerable to disruptions. Furthermore, the RSF’s reliance on tribal networks in Darfur has begun to falter due to the challenging circumstances on the ground.
In addition to logistical difficulties, internal divisions within the RSF have emerged, impairing its command and cohesion. A noteworthy defection of an RSF commander to the Army has severely weakened their position in key areas such as Wad Madani, highlighting the strain within the ranks.
Despite these challenges, the RSF has adapted its strategy by shifting focus from military targets to civilian infrastructure, aiming to exert pressure through chaos instead. These tactics have included recent strikes on essential services and facilities in central Sudan, showcasing a transition away from engagements against military forces.
RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo remains resolute in his goal to remove the Army from Khartoum. Capturing the city of El-Fasher in Darfur, currently besieged by the RSF, is crucial for both sides. A successful RSF takeover could formalize a division of Sudan and enhance their leverage in any future negotiations.
The ongoing conflict in Sudan, involving the paramilitary RSF and the Army, has been marked by strategic missteps and adaptability from both sides. The RSF, initially better positioned due to preparations at the conflict’s outset, is now confronting decreased resources and internal strife. Geographic challenges are also complicating the RSF’s military operations, stretching their supply lines and weakening their hold on contested territories. Meanwhile, the Army has utilized this opportunity to regain strength and maneuver effectively against the RSF, reshaping the conflict’s dynamics.
The current situation illustrates a significant shift in Sudan’s power struggle, with the Army gaining ground through strategic improvements while the RSF grapples with supply and internal cohesion issues. While the RSF has changed its tactics to create chaos rather than engage directly, the outcome of key confrontations, especially in Darfur, could greatly influence future negotiations and the overall landscape of Sudan. The conflict remains fluid, with ongoing repercussions for the civilian population caught in the crossfire.
Original Source: www.thehindu.com
